One reason I’m not so confident of a Republican blowout in the fall is that while polls clearly show that the country is in an anti-incumbent mood, there’s also considerable evidence that people see the GOP as part of the problem, not part of the solution. A new Post-ABC News poll, for example, showed that 58 percent of voters have “just some” confidence, or even less, in President Obama’s leadership, and that 68 percent were similarly doubtful about the ability of congressional Democrats to lead. But 72 percent had little or no faith in congressional Republicans — which suggests to me that the GOP has work to do before its leaders start picking out new office suites in the Capitol.
Another reason for caution is that the Republican Party is out of step with the American public on so many issues. Americans want to see unemployment benefits extended. They want tougher financial regulation, complete with consumer protections. Even health-care reform, which the GOP succeeded in painting as the apocalypse, becomes more popular as the months pass and somehow the world does not end.
It’s true that on some issues Republicans hold the more popular position. On illegal immigration, for example, most Americans agree with the GOP’s get-tough, border-first approach. But Latino voters are passionate in supporting Obama’s policy of seeking comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who are already here. If Democrats can harness this passion, they can hold on to House and Senate seats that otherwise might slip away — and, in the process, potentially cement the support of the nation’s largest minority group for decades to come.
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