The die has been cast, and this is what the final roll has turned up. I’ve organized our final list by state and poll closing time, so as the night progresses you’ll see exactly how the election’s shaping up. Races ranked 1-2-3… etc. are the most likely to flip; races in the 100s, least likely. You may have to subtract four-ish seats from the total here, depending on the number of GOP seats that flip to Democrats. Once you hit the 43 or so seat mark, though, that should be the ballgame.
To sum, Republicans need a net 39 seats to claim a majority, so if we see a bunch of seats in the 40s and 50s going our way, we should be in great shape. Deeper wins, even better. A bunch of losses in seats ranked in the 30s or below, and we may have to hold on to our hats, because it’s going to be a late night. My final prediction: 63 seats, +/- 3 seats. Nate Silver is predicting 53-54 seats on average, with Republicans favored in 59 contests. Your collective Midterm Challenge Prediction: ~70.
All times are Eastern.