Hot Air April Primary Results: And the Winner Is...

After casting almost 7,000 total ballots — a new high — Hot Air readers have again made Sarah Palin their top choice for the Republican nomination for President. Palin took 33% of the vote, followed by Herman Cain at 11%, Mitt Romney also at 11%, Tim Pawlenty at 9%, and Rand Paul with 7%, only a few dozen votes ahead of Michele Bachmann.

Remarkably, despite the big volume differences in our monthly polls, the percentage breakdown from month to month hasn’t moved around wildly, with 1.) distinct trends developing for some candidates and 2.) generally reasonable voter realignments as candidates enter and exit the field.


  1. This is the first time Chris Christie has not been featured in the Presidential question.
  2. Christie’s votes appear to have been spread fairly widely. Of the 574 voters that explicitly said they’d formerly backed Christie, the redistribution went as follows:
  3. This is the first time Mitt Romney has not received 6% of the vote or finished in 5th place. This month, he nearly doubled his vote and climbed two positions into third. Significant jump.
  4. Rand Paul votes are as real as any other candidate’s in the survey. He appears to be competitive.
  5. Donald Trump made a bit of a jump from March. In March, he took 1% of the vote; in April, he’s taken 4% of the vote, which is roughly equal to the combined April vote totals of Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich.

The Vice Presidential race has tightened considerably. Allen West continues to lead the pack at 19%, but with a reduced lead over Marco Rubio, Bachmann, Paul Ryan, and Cain.

The monthly chart makes this tightening a bit clearer.

With a larger number of participants, it’s not surprising we also got a larger number of readers interested in commenting on the site. Last time, nearly 700 people indicated they wanted to join the site. This time, nearly 1800 readers indicated they wanted to comment at Hot Air; like last time, if I find out when this is going to happen and you gave me your email, I’ll definitely try to give you an early heads up. (If you’d like to pass along your email, I’ve left the form open. Fill it out with your email address included, and if you’ve already voted once before, please indicate that as well so I know it’s not intended to be a double-vote.)

How’s the President doing with regard to Libya? Not good. (But it does make for an elegant graph, I must say.)

What do readers think we ought to be doing in Libya? There was one very popular answer.

And the survey’s demographics:

As you can imagine, you can crunch these numbers a bunch of different ways: how conservatives who vote Palin think about Libya, how libertarians who vote Romney feel about Obama, etc. If you’re interested in a specific situation, holler at me over on Twitter and I’ll try to help you out.

Most interesting tidbit this month for me? If Palin decides to forgo running for President, her voters (the ones that responded to the “second choice” question, anyway) say they will vote for the following:

Food for thought. Again, if you have questions or comments, I’m on Twitter.