You know all those doomsayers claiming that the MAGA base is fracturing over the war in Iran?

Tucker Carlson is gone! Marjorie Taylor Greene is off the reservation! Joe Kent has left in a huff!

Yeah, well, it sure doesn't look like the MAGA base is fractured if you look at the numbers. 

It is certainly true that there is a lot of grumbling among the Fortress America crowd about Trump's alliance with Israel and Operation Epic Fury, but that grumbling seems to be aimed at an audience that is either not persuaded or who never identified as MAGA in the first place. 

But when, statistically at least, a president's support among his base is 100%, it's hard to see how one can argue that his base is split. 

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Obviously, it isn't LITERALLY true that his support is 100%. Polls are samples, and they have margins of error even in random samples, and these days, no sample is truly random. There are all sorts of reasons why polls can never be precise, and even basic accuracy is harder to achieve every day. 

But with that said, it's obvious that there is no split among the base. 

Of course, having your base behind you is a necessary but not sufficient condition for political success, and President Trump's polling numbers are pretty "meh," and the polling on the Iran war is downright awful. Generally speaking, Americans' support for wars is high at the initial stage in any conflict, and drifts down over time. 

This time around, the propaganda campaign against the war has been highly successful. The unanimity among the media and the elite has eroded support far more quickly than usual, despite massive successes. 

Success on the battlefield will, as usual, determine what people think down the line. Trump should remain focused on winning the war, and ignore the polls at the moment.