Just like they fled from Mogadishu when the Ethiopians approached, the Islamic Courts Union forces are hightailing it out of their last stronghold of Kismayo. Now they’re blustering about starting an insurgency. Whatever. They had vowed to stand and fight it out, but as I noted here, they learned it’s a lot harder to fight trained men with guns instead of women and children.
I expect some of the soldiers will simply desert and blend back in to society. As for the runners, where are they going? If you imagine Somalia shaped like a big number 7, they are now down in the very bottom of the 7 and have no place to go but Kenya:
Residents of Kismayo said the remaining Islamists were heading toward Ras Kamboni, a small town on the Kenyan border which western intelligence officers say has been used as a terrorist hide-out before.
Kenya officials have said that they have increased security on the border to keep the Islamists from escaping through Kenya.
I expect the big fish will get away, like they almost always do, but I think they will have trouble successfully fomenting a large-scale insurgency in Somalia. All the coverage suggests Somalis were thrilled to see them leave. Nobody likes the Taliban.
Except, you know, Yale.
Anyway, this one’s for you, Ethiopia: