Ayotte: I'll back Trump in November

“Kelly plans to support the nominee.” At least that’s the word from Senator Kelly Ayotte’s spokesperson, and that may overstate her enthusiasm. New Hampshire’s WMUR reports on the less-than-effusive support coming from the incumbent Republican, who hears footsteps behind her in this fall’s re-election effort:

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The morning after Donald Trump became the presumptive presidential nominee of the Republican Party, U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, through a spokeswoman, made it official that she plans to support him. …

Now that the process has virtually played out, and the Republican National Committee has recognized Trump as the presumptive nominee, Johnson told WMUR.com on Wednesday morning in a brief statement:

“As she’s said from the beginning, Kelly plans to support the nominee.”

Governor Maggie Hassan, who will challenge Ayotte in November, wasted no time in framing the race as a referendum on Trump:

“Kelly Ayotte has repeatedly said that she’ll put her political party first by supporting Donald Trump if he is the nominee, and now it is time for Ayotte to just do what she’s been preparing to do for weeks and make her support for Trump official. Ayotte and Trump are clearly in agreement when it comes to critical issues such as their desire to defund Planned Parenthood, undermine Roe v. Wade, and obstruct the Supreme Court confirmation process. And all Granite Staters should be concerned that Ayotte has pledged to support Trump as the nominee, even though national security experts and members of both parties have condemned his foreign policy positions as dangerous to our country’s vital interests.”

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Actually, New Hampshire makes for an interesting test case on the impact Trump will have on down-ballot races. The Granite State has an independent streak, and that would normally play out well for the party that is out of power. As I note in my book Going Red, independents routinely clean house in their state legislature by switching back and forth between Democratic and Republican control. Of all the counties I visited in my research for the book, Hillsborough County, New Hampshire seemed most primed for a pragmatic candidate who dispenses with the red/blue divide to focus on solving problems, especially when it comes to the economy and debt. Trump could tap into that desire.

However, the same independents in New Hampshire’s most populous county want not just a focus on issues, but also an end to the bitter tone that national politics has taken over the past generation. Trump’s bombast might do some damage to his chances there, as well as a lack of connection between the campaign and the local community. Those are issues that can be fixed, and we’ll see if Team Trump begins to address them. If not, then Hassan might be able to hang Trump around Ayotte’s neck — and Ayotte would have to try to maintain an arm’s-length relationship with Trump … which is exactly what this looks like.

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Addendum: It’s worth noting that, while Trump has looked like the nominee for some time, it has hardly dented Ayotte so far in the race. The RCP average (of relatively few polls, to be sure) shows Ayotte up 3.8 points, and up one in the latest from WMUR’s Granite State poll in April. The same polling series (possibly the same sample) shows Hillary Clinton up over Trump by 19 points in April, 50/41. Just as with Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, voters in Senate races seem to be pretty good at distinguishing between Trump and their incumbent Senators.

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