Five months ago, the Susan B. Anthony List activist group commissioned polls in House districts represented by declared “pro-life Democrats” on support for ObamaCare, and found that two-thirds opposed the bill.  The pro-life organization has recommissioned polls in four such districts this month and will commence bus tours through each of them to educate voters on the actions of these Democrats in voting to pass ObamaCare.  Polling shows that opposition may have actually grown since the heat of the debate in March.  But has it led to electoral consequences in these districts?

IN-Sen Brad Ellsworth

Head to Head: 50% Dan Coats, 35% Brad Ellsworth, 14% Undecided

79% oppose using tax dollars to pay for abortions (63% strongly oppose)
73% are less supportive of the new healthcare law knowing that it will lead to taxpayer funded abortion (51% are much less supportive)
66% believe Brad Ellsworth was wrong to betray his “pro-life” principles and vote for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (48% believe he was definitely wrong)
49% will be less likely to vote for Brad Ellsworth after he voted for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (34% are much less likely)

PA-03 Kathy Dahlkemper

Head to Head: 46% Kathy Dahlkemper, 42% Mike Kelly, 11% Undecided

74% oppose using tax dollars to pay for abortions (60% strongly oppose)
69% are less supportive of the new healthcare law knowing that it will lead to taxpayer funded abortion (50% are much less supportive)
66% believe Kathy Dahlkemper was wrong to betray her “pro-life” principles and vote for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (49% believe she was definitely wrong)
47% will be much less likely to vote for Kathy Dahlkemper after she voted for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (34% are less likely)


OH-01 Steve Driehaus

Head to Head: 51% Steve Chabot, 41% Steve Driehaus, 7% Undecided

79% oppose using tax dollars to pay for abortions (59% strongly oppose)
69% are less supportive of the new healthcare law knowing that it will lead to taxpayer funded abortion (50% are much less supportive)
67% believe Steve Driehaus was wrong to betray his “pro-life” principles and vote for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (52% believe he was definitely wrong)
47% will be less likely to vote for Steve Driehaus after he voted for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (36% are much less likely)

IN-02 Joe Donnelly

Head to Head: 52% Joe Donnelly, 35% Jackie Walorski, 11% Undecided

76% oppose using tax dollars to pay for abortions (59% strongly oppose)
69% are less supportive of the new healthcare law knowing that it will lead to taxpayer funded abortion (46% are much less supportive)
67% believe Joe Donnelly was wrong to betray his “pro-life” principles and vote for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (52% believe he was definitely wrong)
43% will be less likely to vote for Joe Donnelly after he voted for a healthcare bill including taxpayer funded abortion (26% are much less likely)

The poll data shows some mixed results in IN-02, especially.  While Brad Ellsworth trails Dan Coats by 15 points in the Senate race, that looked like a long shot no matter what in red-state Indiana, especially in this political environment.  Voters statewide may punish Ellsworth, but that’s not necessarily true in the Second District, where the Democratic incumbent seems likely to prevail, at least at this point.    Their polling shows IN-02 as a D+7 district; Cook lists it as R+2.  However, SBA’s polling shows that the same percentage of voters supporting Donnelly also support ObamaCare, 52%, even if 76% oppose using taxpayer funds for abortions.

The news is better in Ohio’s 1st CD.  Dreihaus trails Chabot by ten points in a rematch of the 2008 election.  Cook shows this as a D+1 district, but without leaners, SBA’s poll sample has a three-point Republican advantage, 33/30.  That’s probably within the ballpark, especially given the mood of the electorate.  More than two-thirds  in this district say that they would be less supportive of ObamaCare if it led to taxpayer funding of abortions, which could make a big difference in a district narrowly opposed to ObamaCare, 47/51.

In PA-03, the opposition to ObamaCare (51/39), disapproval of Nancy Pelosi (29/50), and 3-1 opposition to taxpayer funding for abortions (74/20) still has left Kathy Dahlkemper in a narrow, inside-the-MOE lead over Mike Kelly, 46/42.  However, unlike Donnelly, Dahlkemper hasn’t gotten to the 50% mark incumbents need to feel secure.  Moreover, Cook lists this district as narrowly Republican, R+1.  Turnout will make the difference in this district, and SBA’s bus tour has a good chance of making a big impact.

We’ll talk with Marilyn Musgrave of the Susan B Anthony List on today’s TEMS, so be sure to tune in.