Here, I’ll help him out. Next time he’s asked, he should point to this:

New @DataProgress poll:

– 52% of Americans under 45 have lost their job, had hours reduced, or been furloughed

-35% of Americans under 35 now say they don't have health insurancehttps://t.co/IR61m7J0zn pic.twitter.com/bxLJjBjpDw

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) April 9, 2020

It’s easy to find data demonstrating that this is an economic catastrophe unlike any other, in case the latest unemployment numbers left any doubt. It’s harder to find data showing that easing social distancing before the epidemic is under control would mitigate that catastrophe long-term instead of deepening it.

But he’s going to do it anyway because [points at Trump’s head]. And if he does, says Charlie Sykes, Anthony Fauci’s “Faucian bargain” with the president will require that he make a fateful decision.

Like so many who have cycled through this bizarre presidency, Fauci has been willing to make some sacrifices in order to stay in the room. It has been a remarkable balancing act. He has had to endure Trump’s ignorance and erratic fabulism. He has occasionally had to correct the president’s lies. But he has also held his tongue at critical moments; Fauci has not openly criticized the administration’s failures and has offered the obligatory praise when necessary…

So far, Fauci is trying to navigate the politics here, warning against prematurely opening areas such as New York City. But strains are already showing. The Fox News-talk radio-feedback loop is targeting Fauci for emphasizing public health over economics.

If Trump decides to move too quickly to reopen the country for business, Fauci will face a stark choice. Stay at the table or speak out.

Fauci has been savvy about backing Trump up wherever he can, like by praising his ban on travel from China on January 31. He’s also been diplomatic in trying to reconcile his position with Trump’s in cases where those positions are essentially irreconcilable. For instance, Trump has a “good feeling” about hydroxychloroquine’s efficacy; Fauci thinks it’s reckless to promote hydroxychloroquine without clinical studies demonstrating its efficacy. So Fauci’s position has been that it’s fine for the president to have hope and feel optimistic about a particular drug — but Fauci himself won’t go so far as to encourage people to use it. To the contrary, he’s constantly reminding people when asked that there’s no proof it works on COVID-19.

A formal White House recommendation to reopen the economy in areas where Fauci believes it’s not safe would be a decisive moment, though. Fauci would either have to defend that policy against his medical judgment or risk his job by criticizing it. Can he get away with some mealy-mouthed accommodation in which he says, e.g., “I think it’s risky but I understand that we need to get people back to work as soon as possible”? If he does that, the media will excoriate him for subordinating his duty as a physician to Trump’s political desires. More importantly, some members of the public who are looking to him for a sense of whether it’s safe to return to work might be sufficiently reassured that they decide to risk it. Some will get sick. Some of those will die. Trump might be willing to sacrifice them for the sake of his reelection odds — I mean, for the sake of the economy — but is Fauci, for the sake of presenting a united front with the president? Is he willing to be the one expert in his field who thinks it’s responsible to reopen for business when testing and contact tracing aren’t where they need to be?

If he isn’t and he quits in protest, that’s a disaster in its own right. A huge chunk of the country will no longer have faith in the administration’s public health advice. It’ll hurt the White House’s credibility on the coronavirus response, and credibility will be important over the next 12 months as they guide people on next steps. Case in point: Trump’s kidding himself if he thinks he has constitutional power to override state officials by forcing them to reopen for business, but he definitely has persuasive power in lobbying them publicly to do so (especially if he threatens to withhold federal funding if they don’t comply) — unless his health experts suddenly desert him because they think he’s a crank who’s going to get people killed.

Here’s Trump claiming (falsely) that he has “absolute authority” to reopen the economy pic.twitter.com/LKn2w8EY5l

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 10, 2020

I wish he’d just get on with it and announce that he wants all red states, or all states with fewer than 500 deaths or whatever, to reopen right away. The political aftermath is completely predictable. Doctors will say no. Most governors will say no. Trump will complain that they now bear full responsibility for the terrible economy. Some red states will reopen for business in compliance with his wishes and seem perfectly fine at first. Trump will eagerly tout the low rates of transmission in those states as proof that everything’s fine. Some of the states that are still closed will see some restlessness among workers wanting to know why they can’t reopen for business too. Then there’ll be outbreaks in some of the reopened states. The blue states will say, “Told you so.” Trump will say “It’s just a little outbreak” and we need to expect that these things will happen. If the outbreaks get bigger and businesses start closing, he’ll wonder if maybe some of his enemies deliberately seeded them by bringing the virus in from outside in order to try to embarrass him politically. By that stage of the fiasco, hopefully testing and contact tracing will have expanded to the point where even the blue states can start opening up more safely. If not, hoo boy.

Let’s get on with it. I bet Ron DeSantis, for one, would reopen at Trump’s request. He’s already thinking about reopening schools for a few weeks because kids don’t get sick from coronavirus, never mind that the reason officials across the country have been closing schools is because schools are potential mass incubators for the virus. No one’s worried about kids ending up in the ICU, they’re worried about kids infecting their parents and grandparents and them ending up in the ICU. DeSantis knows that, but a certain amount of willful denial of reality is required for the “reopening in the middle of an epidemic” view.

Here’s your exit quotation, the president marveling that antibiotics — which work on bacteria, not viruses — don’t work on coronavirus.

The President talks about antibiotics and the smart germ. He goes on to describe the virus as hidden, invisible, and very smart. pic.twitter.com/RAr1zobDAe

— Acyn (@Acyn) April 10, 2020