The April poll ran 29-29-17; now it’s 20-20-28. Frank Luntz said the focus group thought he won the last debate and this does nothing to disprove that. But what about this?


Mitt does better in only one of the five categories but still leads overall by eight. I wonder if that’s evidence of Rudy’s social liberalism coming back to haunt him (New Hampshire is famous for its “maverickness” so it’d probably hurt him less there than elsewhere) or evidence of the home-court factor helping Mitt a lot. But speaking of mavericks, look at St. John’s numbers. His amnesty record is blaring in that fifth line, but the first two numbers make him look like John Kerry without the “electability” factor. And this is in a state where he’s not only won before but increasingly needs to win to survive to Mega-Tuesday. Where are his numbers going to be once the right-wing Messiah blows into town and turns on the charm?

Patrick Ruffini thinks the only way he’s the nominee is if the other big three implode — which would leave us with a general election where the only way we win is if the Democratic nominee also implodes. Four implosions. Where’s the smart money?