Fred’ll pick up 10 points once he formally declares so figure he’s within five of Rudy already. Quote:

When the broader range of GOP candidates was assessed, Thompson did particularly well among Christian conservatives. He drew support from 21% of people who identified themselves with the religious right, followed by Giuliani with 17% and McCain with 10%. Thompson’s showing may reflect suspicion among social conservatives of the other front-runners on key issues like abortion and gay rights.

He’s not the news here, though, McCain is. Third place, worst polling ever, only four ahead of Mitt, and probably about to dip a bit further thanks to the two blockbuster bombings in Iraq today. He’s already downsizing his campaign staff after the thin first-quarter fundraising and trails both Hillary and Obama in the LAT poll. He’s not dropping out anytime soon, but the next quarter’s fundraising report is due on June 30th — right around the time the surge will be expected to start showing some concrete progress in Baghdad. If the news on both counts is grim, he’ll have some hard decisions to make around July 4th.

Worth noting: he actually does better with Fred in the race than out of it. In a three-way contest, he trails Rudy by 23, 48-25. (Romney pulls 20.)

Barry O, incidentally, leads both McCain and Giuliani in the same poll and has the highest favorability rating of any candidate in the field, including Rudy, in the latest Rasmussen. Yet he’s still five points behind the Glacier, or 10 points per the LAT, or 19 points if you believe Gallup. So there’s McCain’s consolation, I guess — the polls are still all over the map at this point. Although not so much not to know that he’s in trouble.