Update 2:54 am: In Nevada, Republican Dean Heller is conceding to Jacky Rosen. At present, with 81% of the vote in, Rosen leads 51.5% to 44.3%. So a bit more to go but CNN has called it:
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) November 7, 2018
In Arizona, with 68% reporting, McSally leads Sinema 49.5% to 48.2%.
And finally in Montana, with 71% reporting, Rosendale leads Tester 49.1% to 48%.
And that’s it for tonight. We’ll have the final calls on Arizona and Montana tomorrow morning.
Update 1:52 am: It looks like we’re not going to get any calls in these three states anytime soon. However, there’s been a lead change in Montana. With 65% reporting, Rosendale now leads Tester 49% to 48.1%
In Arizona, 45% is now in and McSally leads 49.4% to Sinema’s 48.3%. That’s a difference of about 15,000 votes at the moment.
I’m going to give this another half hour or so and do one final update but it’s not looking like we’ll have any calls in these three states tonight.
Update 12:57 am: In Montana with 47% reporting, Tester leads Rosendale 49.4% to 47.7%. This one keeps getting closer.
In Arizona, with 62% in McSally leads Sinema 49.2% to 48.5%.
Update 12:47 am: This is interesting while we wait for more returns to come in from Montana:
The only thing that makes this not terribly grim for Tester is that the counties above the line have larger populations. The bad news is that of the counties with 0% reporting, he won (in 2012): 35%, 67%, 35%, 49%, 46%, 39%, 31%, 35%, 53%, 15%(!!), 72%, 37%, 31%, etc.
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) November 7, 2018
Update 12:15 am: Fox News just explained why there are no results in Nevada. Polls closed 2 hours ago but there are still some people in line voting and by law they cannot release any results until everyone has voted. So that’s why we’ve got radio silence in Nevada so far.
Update 12:03 am: Glacial is the pace of these returns. In Arizona with 60% of the vote in, McSally now leads Sinema 49.2% to 48.5%. Still a long way to go.
In Montana with 35% of the vote tallied, Tester leads Rosendale 52.2% to 44.9%.
Still nothing from Nevada but Dean Heller is remaining upbeat.
Nevada Sen. @DeanHeller just arrived at the @NVGOP watch party at @southpointlv. He appears to be in a great mood, shaking hands and taking photos before being whisked backstage. #NVElection pic.twitter.com/so3XA2Htsj
— Ramona Giwargis (@RamonaGiwargis) November 7, 2018
Update 10:45 pm: This is moving very slowly but we finally have some results coming in. In Arizona, with 58% in, McSally leads Sinema 49.3% to 48.4%.
In Montana, with just 18% of precincts reporting Democrat Jon Tester leads Matt Rosendale 57.2% to 40.1%.
Still nothing from Nevada at the NY Times site.
Update 10:02 pm: Polls are closed in Montana and Nevada. No calls at this point but we should start getting some numbers soon.
Update 9:22 pm: Fox News had polls closing in Arizona at 7 pm local, 9 pm eastern and the NY Times concurs but no results expected for at least another 40 minutes or so. Meanwhile, I’m watching the results in Florida which are looking extremely close in the Senate and the Governor’s race.
I’ll be watching the Senate races in three western states tonight: Arizona, Montana, and Nevada.
Polls close in Arizona at 9 pm eastern, right as this post goes up. That’s supposed to be one of the close races of the night between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally had a narrow lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls so we’ll see if that holds up. It’s hard to believe Arizonans would vote for a Democrat who insults the state as often as Sinema has over the years, but we’ll know soon enough.
Polls close in Montana and Nevada at 10 pm eastern. In Montana the Senate race between Jon Tester and Matt Rosendale. Here RCP shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow advantage but as Allahpundit noted this morning, the two most recent polls were split and both showed a very tight race. So this could still happen.
Finally, the Nevada Senate race between Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Jacky Rosen is rated a tie by RCP, but the most recent poll had Rosen up by four. Nevada’s Jon Ralston suggested a few days ago that early vote seemed to be favoring Rosen. So, again, we’ll see if that trend continues over the next couple of hours.
Stay tuned for updates.