Mark Judge sent another letter to the Judiciary Committee today. This one deals mostly with the allegations being put forth by Michael Avenatti’s client Julie Swetnick. Swetnick, you’ll recall, is the woman who claims she attended multiple parties with both Judge and Kavanaugh when she was in college. During these parties, she claims to have seen Judge and Kavanaugh spiking the punch and to have seen multiple instances of gang rape. She also claims she became a victim of gang rape at some point, though she does not say that Kavanaugh was one of her rapists. Judge’s letter today deals directly with several of Swetnick’s claims which he calls “bizarre.” Here’s the letter:

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1045758069140066305

The first five points seem like pretty flat denials of Swetnick’s claims, i.e. I don’t know her, I didn’t spike any punch, fondle any women, or gang-rape anyone back in the early 80s. But point six is the one that seems to be drawing the most attention on Twitter today. “I will cooperate with any law enforcement agency that is assigned to confidentially investigate these allegations,” Judge writes. In other words, he’ll talk to the FBI if an investigation happens.

So here’s what I think will happen next. Assuming the pending deal for a week-long FBI investigation happens, the FBI will interview Judge and make transcripts of what he said. Those reports will pass into the hands of Democrats and instantly on to the media, either in whole or, more likely, in the form of selective leaks. Democrats will then argue, based on the leaks, that it’s crazy to have a final vote without Congress hearing from Judge directly to clear up any remaining confusion. In short, goalposts will be dragged even though the FBI investigation Democrats demanded will have (probably) turned up nothing.

I’d love to be wrong about that but next Friday is October 5, meaning Democrats will be just one month away from their goal, a chance to permanently block Kavanaugh and all other Trump nominees from the Supreme Court. The chance they are going to stop the delay tactics now is zero. Remember Merrick!

Of course, it’s still a bit of a longshot for them to take the Senate, but this gives them an issue to drive people to the polls and it’s a potent one for the base, i.e. vote for us and we’ll save Roe v Wade. That’s what this has been about all along I believe.

What I think Democrats may not have factored in yet is that this also gives the other side an equally strong motivation to get out the vote: Make Dems pay for borking Kavanaugh would be the end of the enthusiasm advantage Dems have been enjoying. It would really be something if the backlash to these delays winds up hurting their chances to take back the Senate and the House.