Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that he can change the Electoral College map by delivering states normally outside the reach of Republicans — especially New York. A new Siena poll strongly suggests that the Empire State project has not only failed to get off the ground, Trump may struggle to match Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance in a 62/36 loss to Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton leads by thirty points, 57/27, and two-thirds believe her more qualified for the job:
Hillary Clinton now holds a 30-point lead over Donald Trump, 57-27 percent (up from 54-31 percent in June), and a 25-point lead in a four-way matchup, 50-25 percent, with 16 percent for other candidates, according to a new Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today. By a 40-point margin, voters say Clinton is more qualified to be commander in chief than Trump. By 32 points she bests Trump on being more effective working with Congress to move America forward. By a 16-point margin, voters say Clinton is more honest and trustworthy than Trump, as 60 percent say she is not honest and 69 percent say Trump is not.
On a series of six issues, between 47 and 58 percent of voters say their views are closer to Clinton’s, while only between 23 and 35 percent say Trump’s views are closer to theirs. By a narrow 49-45 percent margin, New Yorkers say America is great now, rather than it’s time to make America great again. Overwhelmingly, however, New Yorkers see Bill Clinton doing a better job as first spouse than Melania Trump, 71-21 percent.
“Despite Trump’s claims to carry New York, the Empire State seems firmly planted on the blue side of the map, as Clinton holds a commanding 30-point lead in a head-to-head matchup and a similarly strong 25-point, two-to-one lead in a four-way matchup,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “New Yorkers have voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections and there does not appear to be a real threat to end that streak.
Under normal circumstances, a poll of New York would hardly be worth noting, given the Democratic grip on the state. Trump’s insistence that he could carry New York and California, as well as other traditionally blue states, makes this worth tracking. And it’s by far the worst result in the aggregation, as well as the worst result in the Siena series, which last had Hillary up 23 in June with a 54/31 split. RCP’s average (which does not include this poll) has Hillary up 17.3.
With a deficit this large, demographics are almost beside the point, but a brief review helps to complete the picture. Trump leads in exactly two of them, Republicans and conservatives, and unimpressively. Hillary carries 37% and 36% in those demos, respectively. Trump’s losing among women by 49 points, 22/71, and among men by 32/59. He only gets 6% of the African-American vote and 12% of the Latino vote, and trails by 21 points in upstate New York, where his backers claimed he would dominate.
Here’s the comparison to Romney’s performance on those same demos against Obama:
- Republicans: 88%
- Conservatives: 79%
- Men: 42%
- Women: 31%
- African-Americans: 6%
- Latinos: 11%
The news doesn’t improve on issues, either. Hillary wins on every issue, including job creation (51/35) by wide margins. In what might be the most unkind cut to Trump, Bill Clinton even wins the First Spouse poll over Melania Trump — by fifty points, 71/21. Bill even manages to win a slight plurality of Republicans on that question, 46/42. (Melania loses among men by almost 40 points, 26/65.)
If Trump doesn’t win the traditional swing states, there won’t be any entertainment-state backups on the coasts; right now his RCP average in California is actually worse than in New York. Team Trump had better reorient itself to winning on the ground in places where Republicans can actually compete.