Quinnipiac has good news and bad news for Republicans in its latest poll of New York voters. The good news: presumptive Democratic nominee and Empire State resident Hillary Clinton only musters 47% of voters in support of her candidacy. The bad news? Fellow New Yorker Donald Trump only gets 35%:
Driven by a 3 – 1 lead in New York City, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump 47 – 35 percent among all New York State voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Both candidates have negative favorability ratings, 41 – 52 percent for Clinton and 32 – 61 percent for Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
Clinton leads among all age groups, especially among voters 18 to 34 years old, who go Democratic 53 – 18 percent. There is a yawning gender gap, with men tipping to Trump 44 – 40 percent, while women back Clinton 54 – 28 percent.
New York City voters back Clinton 63 – 20 percent, while upstate voters go to Trump 48 – 36 percent. Suburban voters are divided, with 40 percent for Trump and 39 percent for Clinton.
For months, the Trump campaign has insisted that they can put New York in play. This past week, they’ve expanded that view to Connecticut and possibly New Jersey as winnable states. In 2012, Mitt Romney only got 36% of the vote in New York, and so far only one poll all year shows Trump exceeding that level of support — a Fox poll in April that put Trump at 37%.
But the news isn’t all bad, as noted above. The Q-poll today shows the lowest level of support all year for Hillary, the first time all year she’s failed to score a majority of voters. The previous Quinnipiac poll in March had Hillary leading 53/33, so there is at least an appearance of movement. The RCP average lead this year for Hillary in New York is 18 points, and this poll cuts it to twelve — still a wide disparity, but not quite as bad.
The problem with this, though, is that Hillary’s decline isn’t showing up as a gain for Trump. His 35% is almost right at the RCP average, and lands far below what he’ll need to convince anyone that he’s flipping the map in traditionally blue states. Furthermore, nothing in the internals suggest he has a reserve of people ready to switch. The demo with the most upside, 18-34YOs (29% balking at either choice) is his worst demographic in the poll besides New York City voters — and one where Hillary does have a majority of voters.
So what accounts for Hillary’s drop without a significant Trump boost? The e-mail scandal almost certainly played a part in this, but the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake reminds us that she’s just a terrible candidate whom no one particularly likes:
Clinton doesn’t need to be liked; she needs to be liked slightly more than Trump in what will very likely boil down to a two-candidate race.
But it’s hard to overstate just how bad Clinton’s numbers are. And a newWashington Post-ABC News poll is the latest to suggest they just keep getting worse — so much so that they are in some ways about as bad as Trump’s.
The poll shows 54 percent of all Americans have an unfavorable view of Clinton and 44 percent have a “strongly unfavorable” view of her. When you boil it down just to registered voters, those numbers tick up to 57 percent and 47 percent, respectively.
Either way you slice it, Clinton’s image is as bad or worse than it has ever been.
And yet, it’s not translating into a Republican advantage this year, because Trump’s nomination doesn’t allow then to develop it.