The lastest poll by PPP shows Bernie Sanders still gaining on Hillary Clinton in Ohio and Illinois.
Clinton holds a solid lead in Florida and in North Carolina. However, she trails Sanders by one point in Missouri according to the latest PPP poll. More significantly, Sanders seems to be closing the gap in Illinois and Ohio. From PPP’s press release:
Clinton leads Bernie Sanders just 46/41 in Ohio and 48/45 in Illinois, while narrowly trailing Sanders in Missouri 47/46. Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all open primary states and Sanders is benefiting from significant support from independent voters and a small swath of Republicans planning to vote in each state, putting him in position to potentially pull an upset sweep of the region on Tuesday night.
Remember, Sanders pulled off an upset win in Michigan even though all the polls showed him trailing by double digits and, in some cases, as much as 27 points just a day before the primary. So a three or five point gap for Sanders is not necessarily insurmountable. The Hill says that would be bad news for Clinton who, despite her large delegate lead, suffers from the ongoing perception that she is a flawed candidate:
If Sanders wins Ohio and takes three of the five states holding contests on Tuesday, it would be another shot of momentum for his insurgent campaign.
It’s possible Clinton could still win more delegates with big victories in Florida and North Carolina but close losses in the other three states. Still, the losses would add to the sense that she’s limping to the finish line.
If Sanders pulls off another upset victory in Illinois and/or Ohio, Clinton will continue to look weak and money and enthusiasm will continue to flow to Sanders. Sanders trails her by just 7 points in some recent national polls.