A Quinnipiac poll of the bellwether state of Ohio finds the GOP with a slight edge in most potential head-to-head match-ups, though the advantage in some cases is within the margin of error.
“The four leading Republican candidates either tie or lead former Secretary Clinton in Ohio, considered the best microcosm of the national electorate and a must-win for the GOP. Republicans have never won the White House without carrying Ohio,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Governor John Kasich easily tops Hillary 54-37. Kasich also beats Sanders in a head-to-head match up by a slightly larger margin 54-35. But even without the home state advantage other GOP candidates do well against their potential Democratic rivals, though Quinnipiac says these match-ups are too close to call given the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error:
- Trump 44 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent;
- Cruz 46 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent;
- Rubio tops Clinton 47 – 42 percent;
- Trump and Sanders tied 44 – 44 percent;
- Sanders at 44 percent, with Cruz at 42 percent;
- Rubio at 44 percent to Sanders’ 42 percent.
If you look a little more deeply into the results you see in most areas Trump and Rubio have receive similar numbers against Hillary. In both match-ups she gets 42% overall and in both she gets 35% of men. Across the four age categories the results are within a point of each other whether Hillary is facing Trump or Rubio. Where the numbers are different is among women. Against Rubio Hillary wins women 48-42. Against Trump, Hillary wins women handily, 49-36. That’s not surprising since Trump’s favorability with women in the poll is at 29-66 (-37). If Trump is the nominee you can expect Hillary to do everything she can to exploit that gap.
Despite Kasich’s strong favorability in his home state (56-28), a Quinnipiac poll published Tuesday found Trump leading the GOP field at 31% with Kasich five points behind him at 26 percent. The same poll found Clinton leading Sanders 55-40.