That might be a slight exaggeration. Hillary Clinton doesn’t lose to everyone in the latest Fox poll, released yesterday. She beats Bernie Sanders for the Democratic presidential nomination, and ties Carly Fiorina in a general-election match-up. Other than that, though, it’s a Republican blitz, as The Hill notes:
Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) would do best against Clinton, 50 to 42 percent, pollsters found.
Billionaire Donald Trump, retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would also win hypothetical elections, according to the new poll, taken after more than 100 people were killed and more than 300 others injured in a wave of terrorist attacks in Paris.
Clinton and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina would tie with 42 percent each.
Bear in mind in this poll that the sample split is 39% Democrats, 40% Republicans, and only 18% independents, so take this with a grain of salt. We should expect at least an electoral turnout model that has 30-35% independents. Would that help Hillary in this poll? Interestingly, more independents in this survey plan to vote in Republican primaries than Democratic primaries (18/30), but some of that may be more related to the fact that the latter is all but certain to produce Hillary as the nominee. The Republican primaries is where the action is, after all. That may or may not indicate that indies will lean against Hillary, though.
Taking this at face value, Hillary doesn’t get above 43% against any of the Republicans, and that’s … similar to what we’ve seen in other polling, albeit perhaps a bit more extreme. That’s a yuuuge problem for someone as well-known and defined as Hillary, who’s practically running as an incumbent. Rubio’s the only candidate to get to majority against Hillary, but none of them are as well known and have more upside potential in a general election campaign. Hillary may have a ceiling that falls below 50%, and that’s a big, big problem.
Oddly, Fox doesn’t break independents out in the crosstab demos for the head-to-head matchups. They do break out GOP/Dem voters, and this has some interesting data, too. Hillary gets her best GOP crossover when matched up against Ben Carson (11%), but Carson gets the best Democrat crossover against Hillary (17%) for a net +5 for Carson. Rubio gets the best crossover spread at +15%/-8% (+7) and gets a tie among women, 46/46. Hillary wins women in every other H2H match-up, but only by double digits against Trump (49/38). Even in what seems to be a skewed sample, Hillary’s problems still emerge.
The Republican primary race hasn’t changed too much in order, but Carson has slipped slightly over the last couple of weeks:
Both Rubio and Cruz have benefited from Carson’s slight fade, still tied for third place but now at 14% each. Pretty much everyone else has slipped into the second division, including Jeb Bush, whose 5% is virtually indistinguishable from five other candidates at 3% and 2%. This poll re-emphasizes that voters have coalesced around these top four candidates — and that any of the four have a shot at beating Hillary, although a better sample might give us a more reliable look at just how strong a shot they have.