Georgia Democrats hoped to use the combination of an open seat, a fractious Republican primary fight, and a familiar name in state politics to steal a march on the GOP and pick up a badly-needed seat in the US Senate. According to the latest Survey USA poll, that long shot looks even longer. Despite getting the intraparty fight among Republicans they wanted, Michelle Nunn can’t even get to 40% against either of the two runoff candidates in the GOP:
6 weeks to the 07/22/14 Georgia Republican Primary, Jack Kingston is 11 points ahead of fellow Republican David Perdue in the battle for the Republican nomination, and the right to face Democrat Michelle Nunn in the 11/04/14 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett owned station in Atlanta.
Today it’s Kingston 52%, Perdue 41%. Encouraging for Perdue is that among seniors, who are the most reliable voters, the contest is tied, 47% to 47%. Encouraging for Kingston is that he is above 50% among men, whites, independents, conservatives, middle and upper income voters, more educated voters, and in all 3 regions of Georgia. In greater Atlanta, Kingston leads by 10, in South Georgia and Eastern Georgia, Kingston leads by 18, and in Northwest Georgia, Kingston leads by 6.
In hypothetical head-to-head November match-ups against Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn, today, 5 months to election day, Kingston defeats Nunn by 6 points and Perdue defeats Nunn by 5 points. The race is for Republican Saxby Chambliss’ seat. Early though it is: the seat at this hour is a Republican “hold,” not a Democratic “takeaway.”
It hasn’t helped that Nunn turned out to be a mediocre candidate. Given multiple opportunities, Nunn refused to say whether she would have voted with the Democratic majority to approve ObamaCare, even during friendly questioning on MSNBC. Chuck Todd referred to this as “a terrible dodge,” and it’s obviously not impressing many Georgia voters.
Even among the demographics that Nunn should be winning, her performance is almost singularly unimpressive. She leads Kingston among women, but only 42/38, with 16% undecided. She barely edges Kingston among voters under 35 years of age by 38/37, and loses every other age demo. Kingston beats her by 13 points among independents, and only trails Nunn by eleven points in Atlanta. The demos against Perdue are similar.
Georgia Democrats look like they’re bound for disappointment — especially after the GOP unifies after the runoff election next month. If Nunn is not gaining any traction now, she’ll start moving backwards shortly afterward.