The final polls will come at us quickly today and possibly tomorrow as well, so we’ll tighten up our focus and try to cover as many as we can. Rasmussen has three new polls out over the last 24 hours, but only one in a big-focus swing state, Virginia. Mitt Romney maintains a small edge in the Old Dominion that he has kept for the last three weeks, but it’s small enough to get one last visit from the candidate in the final hours of the campaign:
Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided.
This is unchanged from two weeks ago and the week before that when it was Romney 50%, Obama 47%.
This one’s tight enough to look at the internals, which are somewhat surprising given the closeness of the toplines. Obama actually loses the overall gender gap by three points (-7 among men, +4 among women), but he’s also losing independents in Virginia by 21 points, 58/37. In 2008, Obama had a +11 in the gender gap and won independents by one point, 49/48. The D/R/I in this sample is D+2 at 38/36/25; in 2008 it was 39/33/27 but in 2009’s gubernatorial election it was 33/37/30.
Romney wins the economic argument by six points, 51/45 over Obama. There’s a significant gender gap on this question as well, but it also favors Romney (+10 among men, +1 among women). Romney has a 25-point lead among independents on this question, 58/33. On the other hand, Obama does have a positive job-approval rating at 51/49, which is probably why the toplines look as close as they do. I’d guess, though, that Virginia’s going to break significantly for Romney.
Romney has better leads in two other states Rasmussen polled. In Indiana, which Obama won in 2008 by about one point, Romney leads by nine points, 52/43, making this Rust Belt state safe. In Montana, a traditionally Republican state that Obama came within three points of winning in 2008, Romney has a 10-point lead, 53/43. No one seriously considered either in play, so these come as no big surprise.
Rasmussen’s national tracking poll puts Romney back up on top by one again today:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.
Their swing-state tracking poll has been down for a week following the impact of Hurricane Sandy. The results of the national poll have all been margin-of-error tremors, but Romney has led more than he’s been tied or behind since the end of the debates. Here again, though, the internals look much brighter for Romney. He has a fifteen point lead among independents (53/38), and a fifteen-point lead among seniors (57/42). Romney wins the gender gap by five points overall with a +15 among men and a -10 among women. That’s roughly the same as we saw with the internals of the CNN poll with the D+11 sample.
It’s going to be a close race overall, but I’d prefer to be on Romney’s side of those internals in both polls than Obama’s.