No wonder David Axelrod thinks that Barack Obama can win Ohio without winning independents. According to the latest Buckeye State poll from PPP, they only need an extra five points from non-Democrats to get a majority:
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45.
Oh, let’s just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample. The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home. In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28. Has anyone produced any evidence of such a wave of Democratic enthusiasm? Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.
PPP also is one of the few polls to show independents not breaking significantly to Romney. Instead, PPP has them both tied at 45% with six days left to go. The 10% undecided in this case would probably have to break toward the challenger, since Obama’s underwater with independents on favorability (46/48) and especially on job approval (42/50).
This poll is good for a laugh, but that’s about it.