As with the second debate, Monday night may have looked like a victory for President Obama on the top line numbers, but if you looked a little deeper, the results for Mitt Romney were pretty good. More on that below, but a fundraising e-mail sent out by Team Obama this morning may be as clear an indication as any that they don’t feel like the president’s performance moved the ball last night. Yeesh:
I don’t want to lose this election.
Not because of what losing would mean for me — Michelle and I will be fine no matter what happens.
But because of what it would mean for our country and middle-class families.
This race is very close.
I’m not willing to watch the progress you and I worked so hard to achieve be undone.
Fired up, ready to mope. It’s not new for the Obama campaign’s e-mails to be written in the style of stalker; the come down from ’08 e-mails has been noticeable. But I’m betting the base could have used just a little more crowing this morning. Something like this from the campaign’s phone call this morning:
“We have the ball. We have the lead….
Though I will say the fundraising e-mail complements the screenshot from the second-term agenda ad, released this morning. Should have cheered this up a bit. Am I the only one whose brain read, “Barack Obama Complains?”
With the campaign’s allies resorting to the “racial hatred” argument and Obama himself releasing a second-term agenda, which is really just a “nice booklet” of nothing new, it makes me think the Left thinks the same thing about the debate last night as I do— that Romney basically passed the C-in-C smell test (wasn’t that a 90s dance-pop band?) and the debate likely didn’t move the dial much in this race.
The CBS poll’s 30-point win for Obama looks like a clear outlier, but I want to mention it before we get to the CNN and PPP polls, which both seem more plausible and have more demographic information:
The CNN telephone snap poll showed a much tighter Obama win of 48–40 among registered voters (with a sample of 34 percent Democrats, 30 percent Republicans, and 36 percent independents). Some 59 percent of respondents felt Obama did a better job than they expected while 44 percent said the same of Romney. On the question of being a stronger leader, Obama led 51–46.
But the most important stat of the CNN poll? Of those who felt the debate helped them decide who to vote for, it was 24 percent for Obama and 25 percent for Romney. When all is said and done, an 8 percent victory in the debate for Obama actually translates to a 1 percent net gain for Romney.
The Democratic PPP poll posted a bigger win for Obama than the CNN poll at 11 points and good news for Obama across most demographics, but there were these tidbits:
On handling foreign policy, voters favored Obama 51–47, but independents gave Romney a one-point, 49–48 advantage. Overall, 37 percent were more likely to vote for Obama compared with 31 percent being less likely, while 38 percent felt more likely to vote for Romney compared with 35 percent turning less likely.
But the stat of the night comes from the PPP poll: While independents by a 55–40 percent margin felt Obama won the debate, they became more likely to vote for Romney (47 more likely — 35 less likely) than Obama (32 more likely — 48 less likely).