Gotta blog it since it’s the big national poll of the day, but the results are mainly uninteresting and subject to a sample skew. Last month’s WSJ poll had it 43D/39R/14I if you included leaners. The new poll: 44D/36R/16I. The spread between Democrats and Republicans has increased by four points since April — and yet O’s lead over Romney has shrunk by two points. Hmmmm.
In the newest poll, Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).
Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent)…
And regarding Romney’s past work at the private-equity firm Bain Capital, the poll shows that 9 percent have a positive view of the firm and 19 percent have a negative view; 53 percent either weren’t sure or weren’t familiar with it.
I’m highly skeptical that O is leading among seniors, and if he’s leading among indies, it ain’t by eight points. Note the good news about Bain, though: Obama’s campaign is intent on changing those numbers but for now Romney’s business record is no serious liability. On the contrary:
The top two lines in the table above are the big ones, needless to say. On the other hand, there’s this:
Despite the public thumbs up for Romney’s business record, he’s merely even right now with a guy who just spent three years presiding over eight/nine/ten percent unemployment. That seems … a bad place to start from, even with the Democratic sample skew. And especially when you consider that, after a burst of hope in March, people are starting to resign themselves to further economic stagnation:
The one other intriguing data point from the crosstabs is the split on gay marriage. Previous polls taken after O’s “evolution” have shown a backlash to his announcement but this one has things shaking out roughly evenly:
The fallout from the announcement splits here 17/20, but again, that’s being skewed because of the pro-Democratic sample. The actual numbers are likely a bit stronger in opposition.
Follow the link and read down to the end of MSNBC’s analysis for a fascinating, and ominous, comparison between the numbers in this race and the numbers in Bush vs. Kerry in 2004. The basic data is strikingly similar in both races, although of course Bush had a big advantage via the war on terror at the time to help carry him over the finish line. What’s O’s big advantage? The Buffett Rule?