Barack Obama’s numbers didn’t drop in the latest Gallup weekly analysis of his daily tracking poll numbers, but they haven’t dropped below the 40% level — yet. The data set includes Sunday, when Obama’s approval in the daily poll dropped to 38%, the lowest level of his presidency, which was enough to tie the previous week’s results:
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 40% last week, tying his record-low 40% ratings for the two prior weeks that started on Aug. 8.
The Aug. 22-28 weekly average of Gallup Daily tracking includes Obama’s worst three-day average approval rating thus far in his presidency: 38% approval and 55% disapproval from Aug. 25-27. Gallup suspended Daily tracking on Aug. 28 because of the hurricane conditions affecting much of the East Coast.
I wondered about that. The numbers didn’t move at all yesterday, and neither did the change indicators for the approval/disapproval results. I assumed that they might have had difficulty compiling the results because of the storm, but halting the survey makes sense under those conditions. Presumably they started again yesterday, and at 1 ET will have a new three-day rolling average.
Obama faces more problems in the demographics. Gallup compares the numbers from the beginning of summer, when Obama was still coming off of the bump he received from the mission that killed Osama bin Laden, and the change has been precipitous. He’s lost 10 points overall on job approval, twelve points with Hispanic voters, sixteen points with post-graduate college-educated voters, sixteen points among the highest income earners, and twelve points among self-described moderates. It’s a summer-long meltdown.
From last week, the declines have been smaller but intriguing. Despite his Midwestern jobs bus tour, Obama lost three points in the region. His best regional approval comes from the East, but it’s only 43%, and he’s down to 35% in the South. Only 46% of 18-29YO voters approve of his job performance — and that’s his best age demographic, down three points from the previous week. Among high-voting-rate seniors, Obama has fallen to 35% approval, although that’s slightly up from the previous two weeks.
If these numbers don’t improve significantly, Obama is looking a Carter-like wipeout in 2012. The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.