Remember, as of just a few weeks ago, this seat wasn’t even on the board. Then, for the first time in decades, MA-4 popped up in the “likely Democratic” column. And now, if you’ll pardon the pun, it’s moved a bit further to the right. I was thinking yesterday after I wrote that post about Bielat’s internal polling that maybe it wasn’t what it was cracked up to be: The topline number was conspicuously omitted (why would a pollster ever do that?) and the data was 10 days old (are the more recent numbers so grim that they had to leak stale ones?). In hindsight, I thought, they were probably trying to put the best face on an increasingly bad situation. But now here comes Cook with the best news I’ve heard all day — to the point where I wonder if, miracle of miracles, we might actually see this seat in the “toss up” column come Monday. My friends, the wave is upon us.
In fact, let’s bathe in it. Here’s the final ad of the campaign from the Republican Governors Association, which has been churning out Hollywood-quality GOTV spots for fully six months now. Larry Sabato’s final prediction for Tuesday calls for eight seats to flip in the Senate and 55 in the House, which would put the GOP slightly above its 1994 totals. Can we do better?