Many Republicans in California hope that 2010 provides a perfect storm that will allow them to win in a state that went big for Barack Obama in 2008. With both the governor and Senate seats up for grabs, even one of two would make for a pretty decent election. Survey USA’s latest poll shows that both Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina have taken leads in polling for the first time — and Whitman’s lead over Jerry Brown is an eye-popping seven points:
In an election for Governor of California today, 07/12/10, Republican Meg Whitman edges Democrat Jerry Brown 46% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Brown, currently California’s Attorney General, leads 2:1 in the Bay Area, trails in the rest of the state. Whitman, former CEO of eBay, leads among men and affluent voters. The Republican holds 77% of Republican voters. The Democrat holds 64% of Democrats. Independents break 5:4 Republican. Question 1 and 2 on this report show the identical data. Question 1 collapses 9 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for Governor question once.
In the race for United States Senate, Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina are effectively even. Fiorina 47%, Boxer 45%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Twice as many Democrats cross-over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross-over to vote Democrat. The Republican has an ever-so-slight advantage in Greater Los Angeles and in the Central Valley. The Republican carries the Inland Empire 2:1. The Democrat carries the Bay Area 2:1. Question 3 and 4 on this report show the identical data. Question 3 collapses 6 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for US Senate question once.
The results in the Senate race are not that different from a recent Field poll. Boxer edged Fiorina in that survey, but the results from both are really virtual dead heats. Fiorina wins independents and older voters, which may be the keys in the midterm turnout. Boxer has a big lead among younger voters, but that is the demographic which will likely not turn out big in an election without Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
Whitman’s seven-point lead comes as more of a surprise. She has a 13-point lead among men over Brown, and an almost-even split among women. She wins every age demo except the youngest voters. She also comes close to splitting the black and Hispanic vote, and has a 10-point lead among independents. Brown, who currently serves as Attorney General, can’t get to 40% despite having been in the public eye for decades in California. It’s an embarrassing result for Brown, who had to wait almost 30 years to try to get California voters to forget his Governor Moonbeam days.
Both Fiorina and Whitman have a lot of resources left to use in this campaign, and there may be some synergy between the two campaigns as it gets closer to November. If the incumbents — and Brown really does fill that role figuratively — are in this much trouble in July, the state GOP has a real chance at a sweep.