Either Tea Party favorite Sharon Angle has harnessed a massive amount of momentum, or Mason-Dixon has trouble getting a consistent poll out of Nevada. Their latest survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Angle jumping to a large lead in the Republican primary for the US Senate seat, continuing a trend that has been developing for several weeks. In a reversal of a poll from less than two weeks ago, the latest survey shows Sue Lowden as the only Republican losing to Harry Reid in the general election — and Danny Tarkanian as the best match against the incumbent:
Continuing her stunning rise, Sharron Angle has shot into a clear lead in the U.S. Senate Republican primary, according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal that shows the Tea Party favorite heading toward likely victory Tuesday.
But the survey also found that if the general election were held today, Danny Tarkanian would have a slightly better chance than Angle to beat Democratic incumbent Harry Reid. Meanwhile, the fortunes of former front-runner and establishment pick Sue Lowden have fallen so far she now is in a statistical tie with Tarkanian and in a dead heat with the Senate majority leader.
Heading into Election Day, the primary remains so volatile that the number of undecided voters has climbed from 8 percent to 13 percent in the past week, according to the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey, meaning the candidate who wins this uncertain group wins the GOP nomination.
“Angle is the favorite at this point, but I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal,” said pollster Brad Coker. “She’s got the momentum, but there’s still 13 percent on the table.”
Lowden has had something of a collapse in the last few weeks. At one point, this was her race to win. The LVRJ reports that she made “mistake after mistake” in the final stretch, but that mainly centers on her odd comments about bartering for health care. The real change in the race came from the support Angle got from the Tea Party Express and from the Club for Growth, both of which picked her as the true conservative Republican.
What happened to Reid’s lead over Angle — and for that matter, over Tarkanian? Actually, nothing, and the polls are a little more consistent than they appear. Reid stayed in place throughout all of this polling, between 39%-42% against all comers. The change in polls comes from more voters willing to give the Republican candidates their support — with the exception of Lowden, who has lost ground.
Tarkanian may be a temporary beneficiary of Lowden’s ebbing support in the hypothetical general election matchup, but that won’t last past tomorrow. Nevadans are looking for a change, and they’ll take it from Angle. At least this far, Reid hasn’t been able to get above 42%, and without a third-party candidate in the race, that means defeat in November.