A not so minor detail from the crosstabs to this morning’s earthquake poll, overlooked by many but not by Nate Silver. The good news? Scozzafava voters dislike the Democrat, giving him a favorable rating of just 19/50.
The bad news? That’s actually higher than they rate Hoffman.
Ed argued this morning that Scozzafava’s withdrawal is likely to hurt Owens “tremendously” because it frees up a ton of Republican votes. Could be, but how conservative are those votes? Turns out Obama’s net favorable rating among Scozzafava loyalists is … +33, with the split almost a perfect mirror image of The One’s favorables among Hoffman’s supporters:
Silver breaks it down:
The reality is that a lot of Scozzafava’s ex-supporters, many of whom don’t like either Hoffman or Owens, simply won’t vote. And some of them will still wind up casting their ballots for Scozzafava undaunted, as she’ll still appear on the ballot and may have made herself something of a sympathetic figure. Certainly, it would seem to help Hoffman if Scozzafava decided to endorse him — but only 15 percent of Scozzafava’s voters had a favorable view of Hoffman, so they aren’t going to come over easily, if at all…
If I had to guess, I’d think that of Scozzafava’s support, one-quarter of people don’t vote, one-quarter vote for Scozzafava anyway, 30 percent defect to Hoffman and 20 percent defect to Owens. Extrapolating from the morning’s Siena poll, that would produce a result of Hoffman 43, Owens 42, Scozzafava 5, with 10 percent of the voters still up for grabs.
To no one’s surprise, her union endorsements are already peeling off to Owens, and Dave Weigel notes that the eleventh-hour nature of her withdrawal means that plenty of absentee ballots that have already been mailed will end up on the books for Team Dede. Exit question: Aside from a thumbs up from Scozzafava herself, what hope does Hoffman have to make a dent in those favorable numbers in the next 72 hours? Every big GOP booster helps, sure, but more than anything he needs endorsements from big-name centrist Republicans to send the message that party trumps all in a two-man race with a Democrat (a highly ironic argument for DH to be making, needless to day). Help us, Olympia Snowe, you’re our only hope!
Update: At long, long last, Huckabee finally makes his move. Does he still count as a centrist?