Yesterday, the Rasmussen “passion index” — the difference between those strongly approving of Barack Obama’s performance and those strongly disapproving — reached its nadir, at -14. Today, Obama has bounced back a little to -12. His overall job approval number is still 49%, though, and 50% disapprove:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 28% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12[.] …
Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. Fifty percent (50%) now disapprove. …
Of the priorities outlined by the President earlier this year, 40% of voters say cutting the deficit is most important. Twenty-one percent (21%) believe health care should be the top objective. While deficit reduction is seen as the most important, 67% say it is the least likely to be achieved.
Rasmussen makes crosstabs available for a rolling one-week compilation of its presidential approval polling (to members), and the data there is pretty interesting. Independents only give Obama a 41% approval rating, and a 57% disapproval. Younger voters give Obama higher marks (60% approval ratings among 18-29YOs), but thirtysomethings approve 51%-49%, and the news gets worse for Obama afterwards. Likely voters in their 40s disapprove 58%, between 50 and 64 years disapprove 51%, and 65+ disapprove 55%.
Income demographics look even worse. Obama carries the under-$20K demo easily, with 73% approving, but that changes immediately in the next bracket:
- $20-40K: Disapprove 52%
- $40-60K: Disapprove 52%
- $60-75K: Disapprove 63%
- $75-100K: Disapprove 55%
Obama’s problem, ironically, isn’t that this reversal will damage him, at least not in the short term. He has over three years before he has to face voters. Unfortunately, Obama’s damaging his colleagues in Congress in exactly the demographics they need to win in the midterms. Without Obama on the ticket, the Democrats can’t rely on a big turnout among youth and low-income earners. The motivated demographics will be the ones that are angry at the hard-Left policies of the Obama administration and Congress — and right now, that looks like almost all of them, especially independents.
If we needed any evidence of this, the same report has the crosstabs for the generic Congressional ballot. Republicans lead by four points overall, but among independents, the GOP has a whopping 20-point lead, 42%-22%. The GOP wins all of the 40+ age demographics, by ten, five, and fifteen points respectively. Democrats win the youngest voters by merely four points and thirtysomethings are almost a dead heat, 40%-39% Democrats. Republicans win every income demographic except under-$20K.
Obama may have improved since yesterday, but the tea leaves don’t hold out much hope that he will bounce upward in any significant manner.