Good news for Maverick? It surely ain’t bad, but Greg Sargent notes that Obama leads him in all four of these states notwithstanding the surge in opinion. My hunch is that improvements in Iraq don’t do much for McCain except to neutralize the issue: The public thinks the war was wrong and credits Obama with getting that right, so even if McCain ends up being right on the surge it ends up, at best, a wash. That’s a hell of a lot better than the GOP expected this issue to play 18 months ago, but it’s hard to imagine a further shift before November so profound that calling for a renewed, expensive, extended commitment to Iraq actually becomes a political asset.
In any case, winning in Iraq is more important than McCain’s campaign, a point he himself (to his great credit) concedes. Polls like this may not save the GOP, but they’ll make the great flip-flopper think twice before doing anything rash. “Tactical readjustments” indeed.