A statement of the obvious to cleanse the palate after a long weekend spent choking on Maliki’s stinky tofu. The bit about the surge comes at the end; the beginning is devoted to why timetables are a bad idea. Bien pensants will naturally dismiss this as self-serving rhetoric to advance a political agenda, quite in contrast to the, er, prime minister of Iraq pushing withdrawal with provincial elections on the (receding?) horizon. Speaking of which, treat yourself to this AP analysis of Maliki’s very deliberate exploitation of the U.S. election to gain leverage over Bush. Quote:
According to senior Iraqi officials, the decision to play U.S. politics emerged last month after Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari’s trip to Washington for meetings with Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Obama and Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican presidential nominee…
With the talks [on a long-term security partnership] bogged down, the Iraqis sensed desperation by the Americans to wrap up a deal quickly before the presidential campaign was in full swing.
“Let’s squeeze them,” al-Maliki told his advisers, who related the conversation to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
The squeeze came July 7, when al-Maliki announced in Abu Dhabi that Iraq wanted the base deal to include some kind of timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops.
I don’t mind that he’s using Obama for his own ends; if anything, it increases my confidence in him, that he’s a shrewd operator and not just some stooge we’re propping up. But note this, tucked away towards the bottom of the AP piece: “Military commanders are wondering whether all the political bargaining about withdrawal timetables could create its own unstoppable momentum, leaving Iraqi security forces increasingly in charge when they may not be ready for the task.” Indeed. Occupation is sufficiently unpopular with Iraqis, I’m sure, that if Maliki starts to make a big deal about withdrawal, none of his rivals are going to oppose him on it. It’s politically irresistible but, per Mullen, also quite possibly irresponsible. The question at this point, I guess, is whether Maliki sincerely believes 16 months is enough or whether that’s just a rhetorical bludgeon he’ll lay down once the rest of the security deal hammered out. His problem is, if Iraqis start to get excited about it — notwithstanding the advice of some of their own generals — he’ll be trapped into having to follow through on the timeline lest one of the other Shiite parties coopt the issue and use it to oust him. That’s what’s meant, I take it, by “unstoppable momentum.” Keep an eye on whether and how his statements change after the deal is signed.
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