The Oscar thread; Update: Goracle (almost) announces! Update: Gore wins Oscar for Best Social Consciousness; Update: Scorsese wins

Tonight’s the night Hollywood takes a break from disclaiming responsibility for any of the culture’s ills to congratulate itself for having so much influence over the culture. The tension mounts: Is this the year for Scorsese? Will black actors take home three of the big four? If they do, will the Goracle use his “black voice” for his acceptance speech?

I haven’t seen a single movie on the long list of nominees so I couldn’t care less who wins except with respect to Best Actress, where, as always, I root for Kate. (N.B.: Mirren’s a mortal lock.) It’d be cool to see “Borat” win too, I guess, if only for Cohen’s speech. We’ll have some sort of video later — probably Scorsese, possibly the Gorebot if he says something jerky. Which he probably will.

As I write this, the photo wire is at 73 pages and counting. (He’s wearing Ralph Lauren.) Consider this an open thread for predictions, running commentary, etc. To start the discussion, I offer you two clips of Fox News’s red carpet coverage this afternoon. Their entertainment reporter, Lisa Bernhard, gets lost in the shuffle sometimes on FNC. Clearly she wanted to make very, very sure that didn’t happen today.

Update: It’s starting early. From DeGeneres’s opening monologue:

Update: Cute.

Update: Dog bites man. This isn’t an awards ceremony, it’s a fundraiser.

Update: Supposedly the winners aren’t known beforehand, but surely they didn’t bring Lucas, Coppola, and Spielberg together to hand an award to Paul Greengrass.

Coppola has an Oscar, Lucas has a billion dollars, and Spielberg has both. Advantage: Spielberg.