GOP within four on Pew's generic ballot, Pelosi preemptively alleges vote-rigging; Update: Gallup sees Dem lead shrink by six

This, combined with that WaPo poll released this morning, makes it a two-alarm fire with Gallup still to come later tonight. If we’re close there too, the Times is going to put a special flag-draped coffin photo series insert in tomorrow’s edition.

Pew always does a nice job with tables of the key data so click that first link and breeze through. Points to note: (a) not only has the margin among likely voters narrowed from 53-40 in early October to 47-43 now, but the number of undecided voters has increased by three points to 10%; (b) voters who say they’ve given “quite a lot of thought to the election” are up three points in the last month among Democrats — and 16 points among Republicans; and (c) sweetest of all, check this out.


The ABC-WaPo poll didn’t ask about Waffles, unfortunately, but Loseweek is worried. Quote:

Chuck Schumer got right to the point. On Thursday afternoon, the New York Senator, who’s leading the Democrats’ efforts to win back the Senate, called John Kerry and let him have it. The Massachussetts Senator’s supposed “botched joke” about the president’s handling of Iraq had become a feast for Republicans—sucking up tons of airtime and knocking Democrats off message in the crucial remaining days before the midterm election. Kerry’s attempts to fight back, by calling the Republicans “stuffed suits” and “right wing nutjobs,” was only prolonging the story and making things worse. Apologize now, Schumer told him, according to a high-ranking party official who didn’t want to be named talking about a private conversation. (A source close to Kerry said the exchange was cordial.)

Meanwhile, Pelosi says if she’s not the incoming Speaker of the House on Wednesday morning, it’s because the GOP cheated:

In an interview from her Capitol office, Pelosi characterized Tuesday’s vote as a referendum on the war, shrugged off President Bush’s efforts to make her liberalism a national issue, described the current GOP leadership as a “freak show,” and expressed confidence about her party’s prospects to pick up the 15 seats it needs for a majority.

“I know where the numbers are in these races, and I know that they are there for the 15; today (it’s) 22 to 26,” Pelosi said Friday.

Pelosi cautioned that the number of Democratic House victories could be higher or lower and said her greatest concern is over the integrity of the count — from the reliability of electronic voting machines to her worries that Republicans will try to manipulate the outcome.

“That is the only variable in this,” Pelosi said. “Will we have an honest count?”

New York City’s most popular tabloid used today’s lead editorial to address a comment she made a few weeks ago on 60 Minutes to the effect that “war on terror” is a precise synonym for “Afghanistan.” It’s a solid piece but the takeaway is the rebuttal graphic. Click for full size.


I’ll update when the Gallup poll comes out. For now, Cheney’s got the right mindset.


Update: Here’s Gallup. It’s officially a trend, but probably not enough. We’re still seven points down, although…

“Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House,” says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive…

What’s shifted is the determination of Republicans to vote. The Democratic advantage among registered voters was 11 points, but Republican voters were more likely to be judged as sure to go to the polls, making the edge among likely voters smaller.