Plus, get ready for the Team Obama character attacks ... again.

Did Mitt Romney score a debate bounce in polling?  Two separate pollsters show Romney improving in key swing states after Barack Obama’s debacle on Wednesday evening.  First, We Ask America surveyed 1200 likely voters in three key swing states, and found Romney slightly ahead in all three: Note the sample splits.  Obama supporters will have [...]

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Bump and grind.

As anyone who watched the Democratic national convention’s Abortion-Palooza could easily determine, Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates.  So far, that strategy appears to have paid dividends.  Gallup’s poll today shows enthusiasm increasing in all affiliations in both the swing states and nationally, [...]

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Change.

You guys are poll-savvy enough by now to know that samples of likely voters always skew a bit more Republican than samples of registereds, so what we’re looking at here is a de facto tie race at worst. Rasmussen has it 47/45 for Romney today; Gallup’s sample, screened for likelies, would probably be right in [...]

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Romney up 11 among likely independent voters.

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans.  When the Washington Post/ABC poll tells you there’s been no convention bump for Barack Obama, you can pretty much take that to the bank.  Their latest survey shows the likely-voter split in the presidential race right where we found it a fortnight ago, with Obama [...]

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Winning?

Mitt Romney and his top aides are running an essentially faith-based campaign. Whatever the polls say at the moment, whatever the pundits say, whatever some nervous Republicans say, Team Romney simply does not believe President Obama can win re-election in today’s terrible economy. The president may appear to be defying gravity now, but he can’t [...]

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Hmmmm.

The race was even among likelies in CNN’s poll after the GOP convention, so here’s further confirmation that O has indeed gotten a bounce. (Of particular note, his favorable rating rose to 57 percent, his highest in two years.) Three major caveats, though. One: While there’s a nice bounce among likely voters, there’s virtually no [...]

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Winning?

President Obama’s post-convention bounce has grown to four points according to two new polls released Saturday. Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Obama at 49 percent support among registered voters to GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s 45 percent… A Reuters/Ipsos daily-tracking poll released Saturday also gave Obama a 4-point lead. Obama leads Romney 47 percent to 43 [...]

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Change?

A week ago he was at 43/48. Now? 52/43. I’m thisclose to going full eeyore on you. And trust me, you don’t want to see full eeyore. Melting-bunny videos in every post. President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party look as if they are getting at least a preliminary bounce from their convention. Today’s (Friday, [...]

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"We're not seeing a sort of glimmer, at this point, of a bump."

Not sure how useful this is but I subjected you to an eeyorish “no bounce yet” post about Romney during the convention so I owe you a tentative high-five. Mitt ended up with the most modest possible bump after the GOP shindig ended; maybe this new poll is a sign that O won’t fare any [...]

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Aw.

Actually, that’s well in line with the 2004 and 2008 conventions, where two candidates got a two-point bump and the other two got no bounce at all. The race is even now at 48 among likely voters, and Romney/Ryan did itself some good on discrete metrics. Favorables are up for both parts of the ticket, [...]

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Plus: GOP convention ratings down 31 percent from 2008?

The good news? Reuters’s pollster thinks the likeability numbers are more important than the actual head-to-head right now. Bounces come and bounces go but if Romney’s made real headway in how the public sees him, that might translate into a decisive shift six weeks from now when people finally start making up their minds. The [...]

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Managing expectations for post-convention bounces.

The big topic over the next few weeks will be the post-convention bumps for each candidate in the presidential race.  Will Mitt Romney win some momentum going into September, or will Barack Obama reverse a months-long slide?  Two new polls out today suggest that all sides may need to manage expectations.  First, Gallup’s polling history [...]

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