Uh oh.

In their bid to lock down Ohio and keep Michigan in the blue, the Obama campaign has touted few narratives quite as keenly as the “Obama saved the American auto industry with his bailouts and has since saved/created countless America manufacturing jobs” narrative, while actively criticizing Mitt Romney for what they deceptively characterize as a [...]

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Early birds and worm-entum.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the early vote and won it big—by 11 points in battleground states. Banking all those votes before Election Day made John McCain’s already tough road tougher. McCain voters even outperformed Obama voters at the polls on Election Day voting in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, but not enough to [...]

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Hurry. Like... now.

Not too long ago, I doubt many would’ve thought that a video like this would have been necessary… but the times, they are a-changin,’ friends. In a world in which President Obama can’t get above 47 percent among the crunchy constituents of Oregon, a Romney win in the Keystone state — which elected a Republican [...]

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The obvious choice.

What Team Obama thinks will work in manufacturing-heavy Ohio will surely work just as well for the actual seat of the auto industry, the thinking likely goes. Their first ad there is a Michigan-tailored variation on their “Mitt Romney would’ve let the auto industry eat cake; see, he said so himself in 2008″ theme — [...]

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Expanding the map, flailing; tomato, tomahto.

The wave of post-debate momentum that has erased and even reversed the leads that President Obama once had in both national and swing-state battles is still going strong, and with a hefty bit more cash on hand than the Democratic camp and only six days left until the election, they’ve got plenty of spending left [...]

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Closing argument.

An intriguing pair of tweets from a Fox News producer given the sourcing. Sounds like they are, or were, thinking about doing this, but maybe are debating whether the home-stretch budget will allow it. Senior Romney aides confirm to Carl Cameron that they are planning to run a 30-minute infomercial in key battleground states — [...]

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Up two in swing states, too, 50/48.

Barack Obama and his allies promised to make this election about the 47%, and so far they’re succeeding — but in a much different way than they expected.  In most of the latest national polls, Obama can’t get above 47%, while his challenger Mitt Romney surpasses him.  Add the Politico/GWU Battleground poll to the list, [...]

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Getting to know you, getting to know all about you ...

Earlier, I wrote about the sampling issues with the WaPo/ABC poll, and the new Politico/GWU Battleground poll has its issues there, too, if less pronounced.  However, the poll shows a topline edge for Barack Obama, by one point nationally, but Mitt Romney up two points in the swing states.  More interestingly — and perhaps more [...]

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Romney up by 6 among "extremely likely" voters.

Politico warns that Barack Obama has a problem he never saw in 2008 — and it’s getting worse.  Mitt Romney’s likely voters are much more enthusiastic than his, and these numbers mainly came from polling data collected before Obama laid a debate egg in Denver: A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows [...]

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Stubborn.

Ah, the NBC/WSJ poll, the dreariest blog post of the month for the big A. Thus far this year they’ve measured registered voters, not likelies (although that’ll change soon), which means the data’s been iffy to begin with. Worse, the partisan split in the sample has bounced around enough each month to make you wonder [...]

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Hope.

A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it’s terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague? I’m not putting any stock in it but let’s [...]

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Dude?

It’s a slow news day and this is the national poll du jour so I have to blog it, but I really don’t want to. At first glance, the sample isn’t terrible: 42D/38R/14I if you include leaners, but look more closely and you’ll see a tilt. For one thing, the split between “strong Democrats” and [...]

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