I don’t want to hear the spin—2022 was a dismal failure for the Republican Party, given the political climate that was afforded to them to secure a resounding win over Biden and the Democrats.

I was too optimistic about the GOP’s chances thinking a red tsunami would crash into DC. The conditions were perfect for one, and yet—no wave materialized. It was the weakest low-tide election for Republicans in recent memory, given the conditions on the ground. In Florida, a red tsunami resulted in Democrats having no elected statewide officials for the first time since Reconstruction. The rest of the country saw multiple liberal redoubts that prevented a sweep.

Was it candidate quality? Despite the overt deficiencies in Dr. Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker, I’m not sold on that criticism. Walker, by far, is the worst GOP candidate running this year, but he forced incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) into a runoff, which seemed unlikely until the election’s final weeks. Spencer touched upon this over at Townhall, but the Republican leadership and its campaign arms dropped the ball miserably, hoping the national mood would carry them over. The fundamentals of campaigning needed tending to—and the GOP put things in cruise control. We saw glimpses of this last summer when Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), chair of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, opted to vacation in luxury in Italy rather than haul ass and help his party win crucial Senate races. Candidates in vital states were starved of cash, only to be supplemented by Peter Thiel and other pro-Trump PACs AFTER Labor Day.

And that brings us to our last point here, which is that we, as a party, may need to debate the contributions of Mr. Trump to Republican politics. I thought Trump won the 2024 GOP primaries when the FBI ransacked Mar-a-Lago in August. It would have been a prime opportunity to announce his presidential intentions, but he didn’t. In retrospect, maybe we dodged a bullet, given how things turned out on Tuesday. Still being viewed as the leader of the Republican Party, Trump seems to have impacted Republicans down-ticket. I’m willing to revisit this, but it seems clear that voters are starting to get Trump fatigue.

The former president beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 and maybe was the only Republican who could pull it off while injecting new life into a political apparatus that has suffered two-back-to-back presidential defeats. Trump brought new voters into the political process. The neo-populist moment has been good for the Republican Party, but such waves come and go. Like the Tea Party wave, the Trump moment may have a similar shelf life. The former president had his time and brought zest to the table, but maybe he needs to enjoy retirement and allow new blood to take up the mantle.

Reports that Mr. Trump is blaming Melania for the Oz endorsement and comparing his Florida vote totals to DeSantis do nothing to help the party. It reeks of whining for not being the main attraction, and more voters seem to be eschewing that sort of political bravado. The shine he brought to the party and the energy are starting to rust. The bearings of an engine caked in rust burn out—and we might see the smoke here.

Regarding non-Trump-related election matters, pollsters undercounted the number of young people who would turn out in an off-year election. Single, unmarried women continue to be insufferable, miserable voters who back Democrats no matter what if they cling to their penchant for abortion. And split-ticket voters made a resurgence in some crucial races, like in Pennsylvania, where voters in Trump counties, Cumberland, Berks, Beaver, and Luzerne, voted Democrat in the gubernatorial race but pulled for Oz in the Senate contest. Oz and Governor-elect Josh Shapiro are miles apart, but it goes to the debate around Trump since he backed the Republican candidate, Doug Mastriano, who was beaten badly. I still love Trump, but sometimes letting people go is best for both sides.

And in 2024, an election that we must win two years from now, I’m not willing to gamble on Trump bringing back that energy for the GOP base. The GOP was already energized in 2022, and we failed. It’s time to have a top-down review of what went wrong, and Trump must be on that action item list.