Rosenberg is the founder of New Democrat Network (NDN) and the New Policy Institute, a liberal think tank and advocacy group based in Washington, D.C. He's been in politics since he joined the Dukakis campaign as a young man in the 1980s. Then he became a Clinton guy. 

What makes his prediction notable this far out is that he was right about the elections in 2022. He said there would not be a red wave when others braced for it. He went against conventional wisdom at the time and he was right. There was no red wave, there wasn't even a red ripple. He is pushing back again against the doom and gloom chorus who are now bracing for President Biden to lose his re-election campaign. 

He explained his confidence in 2022 came from too much MAGA and not enough Republicans cutting political losses.  

Yes. The argument I made then was threefold. One was that the Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually, when a party loses elections, they run away from the politics that caused them to lose. And Republicans were running toward it. They were becoming ever more MAGA, even though MAGA had lost in 2018 and 2020.

Second, that Biden was actually a good president, and we’d have a strong case to make. And third, there’s been this huge increase in citizen engagement in the Democratic Party. We’ve been raising crazy amounts of money and have an unprecedented number of volunteers because of the fear of noting that a 

Rosenberg noted that since the spring of 2022, everyone has been overestimating Republican strength while underestimating the strength of Democrats. He thinks the same things that allowed Democrats to win in 2022 are still present in 2024. 

He includes a lot of standard Democrat talking points - Trump is not as strong as he was in 2016, Trump is an extremist, he's dangerous, blah, blah, blah. But he does point to one issue that I have concerns about. That issue is abortion. Since the Dobbs decision, Democrats have made abortion a central focus in their campaigns and they are doing so in 2024. 

Abortion is a winning issue for Democrats. Democrats court suburban women by talking about national abortion bans and a perceived lack of health care for women. Republicans need a strong, clear message on abortion, and candidates need to be better at messaging to appeal to a broader audience. Most voters want reasonable restrictions on abortion but talking about a complete ban does not resonate with them. Besides, a complete ban isn't doable. There are simply not enough votes for it in Congress. The very issue that Republicans have worked on since the Supreme Court decision in Roe v Wade in 1973 is the same issue that now is breaking the Republican Party.

For example, Democrats are now strongly considering spending lots of money in Florida and Texas to win over voters who will consider abortion as a top issue in November. DeSantis has turned Florida into a bright red state and with the state's six week ban on abortion about to become law, Democrats are counting on this to help their chances of victories in November. 

The Florida Supreme Court upheld Florida's current 15-week ban on abortion. The law will take effect in 30 days. A separate ruling by the court approves the wording of a proposed state constitutional amendment that protects the right to an abortion in Florida. So, Amendment 4 could undo both bans in November. Constitutional amendments in Florida need at least 60% of voter approval.

Florida and Texas are two of the most restrictive states on abortion. That is why Democrats are taking a second look. Texas has a 6-week ban on abortion and that ban has all but completely stopped the abortion industry in the state. 

Anyway, when asked about Biden's low approval ratings, especially with working-class voters, Simon noted the same was said in 2022. He said it is a mistake to just follow the polls. Polls are an indication of where things are at that time but they are not a real indicator of where things will be closer to the election. He said voter opinions "evolve" as time goes on. He said additional data suggests Democrats will have a good election. 

There is a long way to go. In politics, from today to election day is a lifetime. 

Rosenberg admits Democrats are nervous. He points to media reporting on poll results that viewers see and digest. He said there is more to focus on than just the headlines. 

Well, the evidence is that Trump has underperformed in these early primary states and underperformed in public polling in every one of these states, except for North Carolina. Second is that we know from polling in these early states that somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of the Republican coalition is open to not supporting Trump.

The Republicans who are not supporting Trump this time around may be a problem in November. Biden's campaign is actively courting Nikki Haley's voters in hopes they will turn to Biden when they vote for president. I don't see that happening but some may do that. Haley had support from Democrats meddling in the Republican primary, that's true, but the majority of her voters were Republicans. The Democrats who tried to give her wins in the early states said they were voting for her in the primary but would be voting for Biden in the general election. 

Rosenberg does wish there was more time until the general election. He said the campaign started late. Joe Biden isn't exactly breaking a sweat on the campaign trail. He is barely campaigning. When he does campaign, it is with small groups of people who already support him. 

Something to remember - campaigns are won in April and May, not in October and November. What is done before the summer months get here is crucial. 

What about the Democrat voters who are angry at Biden over how he is supporting Israel in the Israel-Hamas war? Rosenberg thinks the party is unified, which I don't agree with. I think this is 1968 for Joe Biden. We haven't seen this type of resistance to a Democrat president or candidate from members of his own party in decades. There are 1968 vibes in the air and I think the Democrat convention this summer in Chicago is going to be deja vu. I hope our country doesn't have to go through that but I have a sinking feeling it is coming. 

Rosenberg takes seriously the third-party candidates, which means Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. In a recent Fox News poll, speaking of polls, RFK, Jr. has higher favorability numbers than either Trump or Biden. He's 10 points up over Biden, less so over Trump. He takes voters from both Trump and Biden, but in the general election, I'm betting he takes more from Biden. 

Simon uses happy talk to describe the challenge of Biden's age in the campaign. Voters across the board think he's too old to serve again. He's too old now. Voters see his weakness, his feeble physical state, and his mental acuity failing due to dementia. There is no getting around it. Rosenberg, though, uses the same happy talk that other Democrat strategists do - Biden's age is a bonus. He's wise and experienced. 

That argument falls flat with at least half of the country. The country is in a mess and the world is on fire. How has all that wisdom and experience worked out so far? Biden has a history of making poor decisions on all issues and that is still true today. He isn't up to the job of being leader of the free world. 

Here is what I think - I think both parties are somewhat divided right now. I think this will work out to be a Security Mom election in battleground states, not an election centered on abortion. The open border, the fentanyl crisis, and national security issues are at the top of the list of voter concerns. The same is true of the economy. Pocketbook issues will dominate, as they always do in elections. Abortion is further down on the list of concerns. 

I hope I'm right. We have a country to save.