Tim Scott's Hail Mary Plan to Go All In on Iowa

AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Tim Scott’s presidential primary campaign needs a boost. This week he is aggressively shifting resources to Iowa in a move to go all-in in the first state to hold primary caucuses.

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Every campaign wants to win Iowa and have the wind at their back going into New Hampshire. Scott plans to have staff numbers “in the double digits” by the end of this week and he will open a West Des Moines headquarters. Television ad buys are being shifted from New Hampshire to Iowa.

Scott plans to campaign every week in Iowa after the November 8 Republican debate in Miami until the caucuses on January 15, 2024.

The campaign is worried but his campaign manager is putting a happy face on the move to ratchet up campaigning in Iowa.

“Tim Scott is all in on Iowa,” his campaign manager, Jennifer DeCasper, said in a statement. “As the candidate with the highest net favorables, Tim Scott is best positioned to compete on Caucus Day. No candidate other than Tim Scott has the resources, the foundation of support and the message to be successful in the Hawkeye State. We’re all in on Iowa as an important first step on the road to winning the nomination.”

I’m not clear on what she means about resources, since Ron DeSantis and his campaign, for example, planted his flag there from the start. Tim Scott has not yet qualified for the November 8 debate in Miami. So far he has not met the 70,000 donor requirement. He said he will be in Miami. His campaign is well financed and has a healthy war chest but his burn rate on expenditures is high. The campaign is spending more than it is taking in. The super PAC that supports Scott announced it is cancelling most of the remaining $40M in fall television ads it had reserved for Scott ahead of the caucuses. It’s all about spending the money wisely.

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PAC officials said, “we aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative.”

It’s a campaign that has been mugged by reality, it seems.

Caucus history shows that candidates surge in the final weeks of the campaign cycle. Iowa voters are notorious for being voters who decide on a candidate late into the campaign season. Will Trump’s continued large lead in polls usher in a win for him? Trump didn’t win the Iowa caucuses in 2016, Ted Cruz did.

Five of the past six winners of the Iowa Caucuses didn’t lead a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll until November or later (Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Pete Buttigieg) or never led one (Rick Santorum).

The only exception was Hillary Clinton, who consistently led the Iowa Poll throughout 2015 and early 2016, but with a shrinking margin. She ultimately won the caucuses by just a fraction of a percentage point over Bernie Sanders.

But Trump’s margin is historically large, and his campaign has said they expect to win.

Tim Scott has a higher net favorability rating than the other candidates. He comes across as a nice man who is well-liked. He’s a happy warrior. According to recent polls, though, he is in 5th place in Iowa. That is why his campaign is re-setting and he will aggressively focus on Iowa. It’s time for a change in order to be one who survives when he GOP field winnows.

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Longshot candidate Perry Johnson, a Michigan businessman, suspended his presidential campaign. He poured millions of his personal wealth into his campaign but didn’t qualify for either RNC debate. He left the race with sour words for the RNC.

“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the people should decide the next President of the United States, not the RNC and their cronies,” Johnson said in a statement. “With no opportunity to share my decision on the debate stage, I have decided at this time, suspending my campaign is the right thing to do.”

Federal campaign finance data shows Johnson loaned his campaign $12.5 million of the $14.5 million it raised. Johnson’s campaign said he would keep a small team of political staff “in the event the dynamics of the race change.”

You never know but in this case, it’s probably safe bet to say there won’t be much work for his small team as the primary season moves on. Johnson has endorsed Trump. Trump showered Johnson with praise for doing so.

“There is now only one candidate in this race who can provide a solution to our nation’s economic, foreign policy and social crises, and most importantly, beat Joe Biden at the ballot box,” wrote Johnson. “That person is Donald Trump.”

“Perry Johnson is a brilliant Businessman who has enjoyed great success. Above all, he loves our Country!” wrote Trump. “After a valiant effort, he is now leaving the Race for President to do other things, which I have no doubt will be very successful. It is a great honor for me to have received his Full Endorsement. I will make Perry very proud of this decision, because we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Johnson, in turn, thanked Trump for his kind words, tweeting, “Thank you, Mr. President. It is time to fire @JoeBiden, elect Republicans up and down the ballot, and yes – Make America Great Again!”

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