As regular readers already know, China has been trying for decades to seize submerged reefs in the South China Sea and turn them into islands which it claims are for civilian use. China did exactly this with Mischief Reef which was once a reef that was only partially exposed during low tide. After years of dredging and construction by China, it now looks like this:

Second Thomas Shoal is another reef only about 25 miles east of Mischief Reef. China has claimed it as well but has been thwarted by the Philippines which back in 1999 ran an old US ship aground on the reef as an outpost. That ship, the Sierra Madre, has been rusting in place for more than two decades but a handful of Philippines soldiers occupy it at all times, preventing China from claiming it.

The whole issue of China’s behavior in the Spratly Islands in general and at Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal in particular was already decided in 2016 by the Hauge. That 450-page decision, which you can read here, found China’s claim to the majority of the South China Sea (the so-called 9-dashed line) had no merit and that its construction of an island on Mischief Reef granted it no additional claims to territorial waters in the area. In fact, the Hague found that both Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal were within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines. China refused to participate in the process that led to that conclusion and has disputed it ever since.

Having lost the legal argument, China has resorted to frequent harassment of Philippines resupply ships which come to Second Thomas Shoal with supplies and soldiers who are moved on and off the decrepit Sierra Madre. This battle has been going on for decades but this year in particular China’s Navy has really upped the ante, using lasers, water cannons and recently even colliding with a resupply boat.

In response to China’s bullying, the Philippines has been inviting international media on board these resupply runs so there are witnesses to what is happening. The Philippines has referred to this as an “assertive transparency campaign.” Yesterday the NY Times had a reporter aboard one the Philippines’ ships and got to witness it.

When the sun rose around 6 a.m., the cat-and-mouse game immediately began. The Chinese ships boxed in the Cabra, forcing the vessel to maneuver its way out. This occurred at least two more times…

A Chinese coast guard vessel crossed the Cabra’s bow at least twice. When the vessel was only yards away, the radar system turned red, warning of collision danger.

The Associated Press also had reporters aboard yesterday and has more:

At the height of Friday’s four-hour faceoff in the high seas, a Chinese coast guard ship blasted a water cannon toward a Philippine motorboat delivering food and other supplies to Filipino forces on a marooned, rusting warship that serves as the country’s fragile territorial outpost at Second Thomas Shoal…

At least 38 Chinese ships were spotted in Second Thomas Shoal’s vicinity on Friday, including a Chinese navy fast assault craft and a hospital ship, the Philippine coast guard said.

One of the Philippine coast guard ships, the BRP Cabra, was surrounded five times by the Chinese coast guard and other ships, but managed each time to move away until it was hemmed in near the shoal.

Eventually, the Cabra was able to make it to Second Thomas Shoal and the resupply was completed. The Philippines condemned China’s actions on Friday.

The Philippines on Friday condemned China’s coast guard for “unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous maneuvers,” including its use of a water cannon against one of its boats, in an attempt to disrupt a resupply mission in the South China Sea.

China’s actions, the Philippines said, have not only “put the lives of our people at risk,” but have “put into question and significant doubt the sincerity of its calls for peaceful dialogue.”

China did its best to block the Philippines’ resupply run short of opening fire on it and they were unable to prevent it. Having once again failed, China then claimed it had made a special temporary exception.

Gan Yu, a spokesman for the China Coast Guard, said on Friday three Philippine coastguard ships and two cargo vessels made an “unapproved entry” into the disputed waters.

He said the coastguard followed and took control measures against the Philippine vessels and made “temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to transport food and other necessary daily supplies”.

Needless to say, that’s not at all what happened. But how much longer can this showdown continue? The Times reports that in 2018 the Philippines estimated the rusting Sierra Madre would only survive another two years. Five years later it’s still there but it’s only a matter of time before it literally collapses into the sea. And when that happens, China will swoop in and claim the territory.

The Philippines has considered refurbishing the ship but bringing construction equipment to the site would provoke an even stronger reaction from the Chinese Coast Guard. Another option is also mentioned:

Manila has few good options. Building an entirely new military outpost could take months and would require transporting large amounts of construction materials that could be prevented by a Chinese blockade. The government even considered building a structure inside the Sierra Madre, said Mr. Ong, who likened it to the outer shell of an egg breaking up “with a chick inside.”

An outpost inside the crumbling ship. Could that work? And then we get this last paragraph of the story. It’s not clear whose perspective we’re getting here. Did the Times’ reporter board the Sierra Madre?

A tall concrete structure loomed at one end of the ship, with rooms that appeared to be unfinished. Atop of it was a steel post connected with wires, cameras and a satellite dish. On the far side, the Philippine flag billowed in the wind.

An unfinished concrete structure inside the ship? It sounds like the Philippines may have already gone with the chick inside the breaking egg strategy. At least I think that’s what the Times is suggesting. But that’s the end of the story so we don’t get any more about this or where it came from. But it sounds like China may have a much longer time to wait if they were hoping the collapse of the Sierra Madre would be their moment to seize the shoal.