This weekend we saw one of the first big, deep sample phone polls since the debates and it came from Fox News. This morning the next shoe dropped when CNN/ORC released their matching survey and the number of differences between the two at the top are barely enough to fill a thimble. Let’s start with the splash screen and get that out of the way.

Trump’s lead is, in effect, the same in both polls so that’s fairly static. What’s interesting (and we’ll need to dig through the cross tabs to see how this happened) is that Bush and Carson are essentially flipped. CNN is finding significantly more support for Jeb and less for Carson. The low end numbers are always in flux because the margins are so thin, but the one steady riser is Fiorina. Everyone seems to have her bouncing up above the noise level by four or five points. The other constant is Scott Walker who was looking like the front-runner until Trump showed up, but is now languishing down in the weeds.

But what about Ted Cruz? The Fox poll had him at 10%, one of only three in double digits, but CNN has him back down in the weeds at 5. Conversely, Rand Paul is looking a lot stronger than he was in the Fox sample. One factor to remember is that all of these polls at this stage are based on registered voters, not likely voters. You’re going to get a lot more static in the figures when you include significant numbers of people who likely aren’t following the news as closely and might not even show up to vote. Sadly, that’s all we have to work with at this stage, but given the data from these two samples, the big question mark is really on Cruz.

In the favorable, unfavorable pageant, Trump still leads both at 36/59. The big mover in this category was also Carly Fiorina. She’s at 27/19 with one of the lowest unfavorables in the field. There are still 43% who say they haven’t heard of her or don’t know enough about her, but that number is dropping quickly. (It was above sixty a month ago.) And as that category falls, her favorables are rising far faster than the unfavorables which is the kind of motion every candidate dreams of. This also makes two polls in a row where she finds herself with high enough numbers to get a seat on the main stage and avoid the kids table.

Dig through the rest of the questions yourself if you’re looking for some light reading this morning. They are remarkably similar to the Fox poll in most areas, but we’ll no doubt find a few more nuggets as we unpack them.