It’s still over a month until the next GOP debate, hosted by CNN and the Reagan Library and moderated by Jake Tapper, but we are getting word that the format may be strangely familiar to viewers of the recent spectacle. The hosts have begun sending out invitations already and giving what sound like confirmed details of how it will play out. The similarities are rather hard to ignore. (Yahoo News)

All but one of the 17 Republicans vying for the party’s presidential nomination have made the cut so far for the next debates hosted by CNN, the network said on Tuesday in a decision that could leave former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore on the sidelines.

CNN and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, which is co-hosting the Sept. 16 debates, said invitations have been sent by former first lady Nancy Reagan to 16 candidates who meet their criteria. All but Gilmore “have qualified thus far and have received invitations,” they said in a statement.

Earlier this year CNN said candidates must meet certain criteria, including an average of 1 percent of support in three recent national polls. CNN’s latest poll released showed Gilmore at the bottom of the pack with less than one percent.

So long story short, they’re going to average out the national polls, put the top ten in a prime time event and lump everyone else who makes it above one percent into an “undercard” debate. Sound familiar yet? As far as Gilmore being left out… what’s the point? If you have room for ten people at the main event, what’s the difference between having six or seven at the kids table? Besides, as we’ve discussed before, if you’re looking at a national poll with, let’s say… 400 respondents, we’re talking about the difference between four people picking you and three. That’s a rather subjective way to draw a line in the sand. And at this point I don’t think we’re waiting for any more Republicans with any real – if long shot – chance at victory jumping into the race. The Democrats may have to contend with Biden getting in, but they’re still sitting at four “real” candidates maximum, so they won’t have to worry about that.

The one thing that almost certainly will change for the GOP battle is the list of names who will be on the big stage. Trump, Bush, Walker, Huckabee, Carson, Cruz and Rubio still all seem like locks (at least for now) but the lower end of the field has been shaken up considerably. Kasich has been rising (at least for now) so he’ll probably keep his spot. The big mover, though, is Carly Fiorina. Looking at the RCP average as of this morning, her numbers are still in the tank but that’s only because the widget only has one set of national figures to dump in since the debates. But the difference between that single data point and the last five is stark, with the former HP executive going from scores ranging from zero, one or two up to nine in less than a week.

If Carly moves up, somebody else will have to head for the side show. The smart money will still probably be on Christie, who sagged a bit further after the debate, but I have to wonder if Rand Paul isn’t getting nervous. He’d have to drop a fair distance to miss the cut, but he’s been showing a lot of weakness in public support. (He didn’t do himself any favors at the debate either, in my opinion.) Even if somebody drops out between now and September 6th (Rick Perry anyone?) that’s not going to change the prime time lineup.

Exit question for the crowd: You’ve had a fair amount of time now to digest what happened with the Fox format. How did that work for you? Is this at least “good enough” that CNN should basically run a carbon copy or do they need to mix things up with a serious change that is actually doable? I still think sixteen is too many for one stage, but so is ten, really. Should they at least make the show a half hour longer to give each candidate more time?