It’s a perilous moment for the Grand Old Party. Either Trump folds and backs off his demand for the wall — the signature promise of his 2016 campaign — or the government will shut down over the holidays.

“The odds are 65/35 we’re shutting down. I’m not optimistic we’re going to see some kind of compromise on appropriations on Homeland Security,” said Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.), the freshman representative to the GOP leadership team. “I don’t see that they’re going to get done bickering.”

“Trump will get the blame, but he won’t care,” added a second GOP lawmaker. “And the base will love him for it.”

House GOP leaders, hoping to protect their ally in the White House, are eyeing a vote next week on a spending package that includes the $5 billion in border wall funding Trump is demanding. But it’s unclear if they have enough Republican support to pass it, and Democratic leaders are all but taunting them with predictions that the measure will fail spectacularly.