The collection of all these factors, coupled with jittery investors already worried about trade wars and a global slowdown, could deny Trump the kind of big economic growth numbers he loves to celebrate. And they could undercut one of the GOP’s biggest current arguments: You may not love what Trump says or does, but the Trump economy is awesome.

“The first punch will be the lag effect of rising interest rates. Rates work slowly but they do work eventually,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “And the second will be that by 2020, without a further package from Congress, the stimulus will be done. You put all these together and it’s a little like Wile E. Coyote running over the cliff. You look down and the ground you thought was under you suddenly isn’t there anymore.”