CBS News pollster reveals why "blue wave" is unlikely

Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.

Advertisement

Choosing the 15 percent of districts that could flip is as much an art as a science, Salvanto said, but “there’s already a consensus forming among pollsters on what districts they are.”

The potential swing districts are scattered from coast to coast. One of Salvanto’s battlegrounds is right here in New York City — NY-11, in Staten Island and south Brooklyn, currently held by Republican Dan Donovan and being challenged by Democrat Max Rose. Others are in states from Texas to Maine to California to, yes, previously underpolled Michigan.

Some are picked for their demographic profile. “For example, we know Democrats have been trying to win suburban voters with college degrees, so we’re looking at the districts with many of those voters,” Salvanto said.

Join the conversation as a VIP Member

Trending on HotAir Videos

Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement