The overall percentage of U.S. adults describing themselves as absolutely certain to vote in a midterm election has ranged from as low as 54% right before the 1978 midterms to a high of 68% in both 2006 and 2010. Gallup has not routinely asked the question this soon in a midterm year, but in years for which early measures are available (1982, 1998, 2002 and 2010), adults’ intention to vote changed little over the course of the campaign.

There is currently no difference in turnout intention by party: 65% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote. As is normal, independents are less certain of voting, at 45%.