There’s a second reason to doubt a majority of the court will strike down Trump’s order: His administration may have dressed it up in sufficient pretext to persuade at least Roberts and Kennedy that it complies with the law.

As Elie Mystal has explained, the third ban presents itself as an evenhanded, carefully devised executive policy instead of a dashed-off memo that emerged from the fever swamps of Stephen Miller’s mind. Executive order No. 3 was purportedly reviewed by multiple federal agencies, which determined, in tandem with Trump, that the individuals affected may be “detrimental to the interests of the United States.” It adds Venezuela and North Korea—which do not have Muslim majorities—to the list of banned countries, even though neither addition has any practical effect. And it allegedly allows countries to get off the list by complying with U.S. standards. Those changes, combined with the ostensible deliberation process, may undermine the plaintiffs’ statutory and constitutional objections.

Finally, there is a small but real chance that the Supreme Court could conclude that the travel ban isn’t subject to meaningful judicial scrutiny. From the start, Trump’s Department of Justice has argued that the courts have exceeded their authority by closely examining the bans’ purpose and effect. It claims the president’s broad constitutional authority in matters of national security precludes the judiciary from questioning, let alone invalidating, the executive branch’s exclusion of certain immigrants. That argument might be too radical for Roberts and Kennedy, but it’s on the table, and the troika of far-right conservative justices may push for it.