But, Virginia’s Democrats didn’t seriously compete or spend money in most Trump-carried delegate districts. And in the few where they did, they tended to modestly outperform Clinton. Democrats pick up a Virginia Beach seat Trump carried by a point, and came within less than 150 votes of winning two other Trump seats. In Loudoun County, Democrat Tia Walbridge spent over $264,000 and took 45 percent in a seat where Clinton took just 40 percent last fall.

Taken together with results from four 2017 House special elections in red districts, where Democrats outperformed Clinton anywhere from one point (GA-06) to 13 points (KS-04), the balance of evidence suggests Democrats would be the ever-so-slight favorites to reclaim the House if the elections were held today.