The most popular Beltway parlor game: Who will replace Tillerson?

As several excruciating profiles have detailed, Tillerson’s main legacy will likely be a State Department depleted of talent, with the lowest morale in decades and playing a reduced role in the crafting and implementation of U.S. foreign policy. His successor’s primary mission will be to reverse that trend. The top two contenders, Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and CIA Director Mike Pompeo, offer different paths for recovery.

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Haley has been praised both externally and within the Trump team during her short tenure in New York City. She’s credited with “getting it done ” on matters such as North Korea sanctions and toughening up the U.S. stance at the United Nations. Unlike Tillerson, she was quick to get a top-notch staff in place, which has allowed her to be effective inside the interagency process.

Her appointment would foretell a State Department that hews toward traditionally hawkish GOP positions, including forceful advocacy for freedom and human rights abroad. It could also mean a shift in the current drive to mend relations with Russia. Last week, Haley told the George W. Bush Institute that Russian interference in U.S. elections amounted to “warfare.” Haley also defended funding for diplomacy and free trade.

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