Item: Money. The Governor of Texas has already proven himself a master fundraiser. It’s true that Chris Christie would have access to big money in New York while Jeb Bush would be able to tap into the network that his father and brother established. But nobody will be able to outraise Rick Perry, who will have all the money he needs and then some to fight the primary campaign.
Item: Texas. Perry will start with the support of the biggest red state in the country, a very large political fact. Chris Christie? It’s not at all clear that in a general election he could carry his home state of New Jersey. Jeb? He’s been a former governor for a good long time now. Could he carry Florida? Who knows? Could Scott Walker carry the purple state of Wisconsin? Could Bobby Jindal carry Louisiana, where his approval ratings have fallen lately?
Item: The early primaries. … Iowa? Evangelicals and cultural conservatives dominate the primary process—so much so that Mike Huckabee defeated the much, much better funded Mitt Romney in 2008 and — although an accurate vote wasn’t announced until several weeks after the primary took place — Rick Santorum defeated Romney all over again in 2012. Perry will command evangelical support.