No, immigration reform won’t deliver a Latino voter “bonanza” to Democrats
The problem I have, though, is why would anyone use the 11 million figure for reference.
First off, 1 million undocumented immigrants are under the age of 18. I don’t care what your immigration status is, you can’t vote in United States presidential elections if you are under the age of 18.
Second, of the 10 million adults, 19% aren’t actually Latino; 11% are Asian. Asian voting patterns tend to be less stable than Latinos. In the past election, Asians went for President Obama by about 45pt. Twenty years ago, they went for Republican George HW Bush.
Without more research (and there is surprisingly little of it), it’s unclear to know how undocumented Asian voting patterns would change given immigration reform. Also, keep in mind that about 60% of these Asian immigrants are in California and Washington State alone – so they’re not exactly going to be a game-changer in the electoral college.
Third, I tend to doubt that all 8 million adult Latino undocumented immigrants would go for citizenship. A Latino Decisions poll says 87% of them would, but I’m skeptical. Only 60% of all legal immigrants actually apply for citizenship. Since the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, only about 40% of the newly eligible immigrants by so-said act became citizens. It would be reasonable to expect a similar percentage this time.