Urban vs. rural: The split on gay marriage

For instance, look again Florida. It not only has a lot of same-sex couples, it is also highly urbanized (87% of its population lives in urbanized locales, according to the Census). So if the national polling trends continue, it may be only a matter of time before gay marriage is legal there – though it should be noted that any change there would require changing the state constitution.

The same may be true for Colorado, which over-represents for same-sex couples, is trending Democratic and is highly urbanized (77% of its population). Those points are also true for many smaller states like Hawaii and Delaware.

But forces may be combining for a contrary impact in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi. All those states tend to vote Republican, they under-represent for same-sex couples and less than half-their population lives in urbanized locales. It wouldn’t be surprising if voters in those states grow more opposed to gay marriage, at least in the near-term.

When you look at it that way, it hardly looks like the same-sex marriage debate is ending. It may just be entering a new phase.